1st International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - Lugano, Switzerland - June 2002
Keywords
macroeconomics, endogenous technical change, kondratiev waves
Start Date
1-7-2002 12:00 AM
Abstract
A world macroeconomic model is being developed to investigate policies for climate change and sustainabledevelopment, as a module of an IAM structure for the UK Tyndall Centre. This requires an economic modelfor the next 50-100 years, to show how changes in industrial structure and technology change GHGemissions. There is no suitable and generally accepted theory of long term technical change/development(Kondratiev waves) for incorporation in a macroeconomic modelling structure. However, there is now a gooddescriptive theory, which is intended to provide an economic history perspective of long term change. This isFreeman and Louçν (2001). The objective of our model is to interpret this descriptive theory in quantitativeterms, in the context of the macroeconomic analysis. It will model the dynamics of Input-Output coefficientsand the implied industrial structure, incorporating endogenous technical change from RandD and investment,with learning-by-doing.
Long run technical change in an energy-environmenteconomy (E3) model for an IA system
A world macroeconomic model is being developed to investigate policies for climate change and sustainabledevelopment, as a module of an IAM structure for the UK Tyndall Centre. This requires an economic modelfor the next 50-100 years, to show how changes in industrial structure and technology change GHGemissions. There is no suitable and generally accepted theory of long term technical change/development(Kondratiev waves) for incorporation in a macroeconomic modelling structure. However, there is now a gooddescriptive theory, which is intended to provide an economic history perspective of long term change. This isFreeman and Louçν (2001). The objective of our model is to interpret this descriptive theory in quantitativeterms, in the context of the macroeconomic analysis. It will model the dynamics of Input-Output coefficientsand the implied industrial structure, incorporating endogenous technical change from RandD and investment,with learning-by-doing.
