The role(s) of CIB in constructing hybrid scenarios

Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common hybrid approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modelling. However, the integration of interdisciplinary - and therefore often heterogeneous forms of knowledge - still is one of the main challenges of quantitative modelling. To support interdisciplinary knowledge integration, we use the concept of ‘context scenarios’, constructing qualitative scenarios with semi-qualitative Cross-Impact Balance analysis (CIB) and linking it with quantitative models. We have applied this hybrid approach in different methodological designs in several projects regarding water management and energy transitions. Reflecting and drawing insight from these empirical cases, we ask, what roles CIB can play in constructing hybrid scenarios and what effects these different roles have. Comparing different designs reveals differences in the dominance of either the CIB or the quantitative model, in the type of coupling, and in the timing of specific process steps. Furthermore, CIB is able to play various roles within a hybrid scenario process. The definition of these roles depends on the specific aims and expectations of the project team. CIB itself and its use in specific methodological designs has effects on (interdisciplinary) knowledge integration, the (mutual) adaptation of qualitative and quantitative system representations, the interface management between qualitative and quantitative approaches, as well as learning and social integration.