11th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - Brussels, Belgium - June 2022

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11th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - Brussels, Belgium - June 2022:

Stream E

Stream E: Solutions and Application for Environmental Problems

Session E.0: General Presentations on Solutions and Application for Environmental Problems

Presentations that do not fit in any of the specific sessions below are invited for submission to this general session on general presentations on solutions and application for environmental problems.

Session E.1: Drought Assessment and Management

Drought is prevailing in most part of the world where its severity is increasing in multiple folds. Hence, modelling practices to understand and predict drought are at their utmost importance. Therefore, its time to go beyond the state of the art and share ideas so that we tackle burning research problems with a combined effort. Hence, we would like to invite scholars (Professors, post-doctoral researchers, independent researchers, Ph.D. students, M.Sc.. students, stakeholders, water companies, water managers, etc.) to take part in the drought session that we organize during the IEMSS conference. We invite you all to submit your abstract with the following main themes but in a broader context:· Groundwater-surface water interaction on drought context· Uncertainty on drought index estimations· Modelling work to improve agricultural drought estimation· Remote sensing to estimate and predict drought· Combined effect of weather variables on drought estimations· Climate change and its effect on drought· Drought and sediment dynamics relations at river reaches· Nature Based Solutions as drought adaptation measures· Effect of drought on water quality· drought propagation in hydrological cycle and its socio-economic impact · Machine Learning and its application for drought characterization and predictions· Inter country spatial and temporal correlation of meteorological droughts and their implication as early warning system· Early warning system in general with socio-economic analysis· Drought and its potential impact on perennial and ephemeral rivers · Drought framework for proper characterization (are there hidden drought characteristics that we are not aware of - beyond the state of the art), etc.

Session E.2: Ecosystem Services Quantification

Ecosystem services refer to the direct or indirect benefits humans obtain from ecosystems which support their survival and quality of life. The conceptual classification of ecosystem services into supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural services is widely accepted and used as the main analytical framework for their assessment. Indeed, during the recent decades, ecosystem services were assessed in different spatial scales from local, regional, to global aiming at different goals, but sticking to the established classification. Using this framework an impressive quantity and quality of studies focused on what ecosystem services are, their reciprocal relations, and assessment efforts have been produced in the last years. In this session we welcome contributions on the quantification and valuation of ecosystem services and the integration in natural resources management.

Session E.3: Environmental Fluid Mechanics - Theoretical, Modeling and Experimental Approaches

Environmental Fluid Mechanics (EFM) is the scientific study of transport, dispersion and transformation processes in natural fluid flows on our planet Earth, from the microscale to the planetary scale.Stratification and turbulence are two essential ingredients of EFM. Stratification occurs when the density of the fluid varies spatially, as in a sea breeze where masses of warm and cold air lie next to each other or in an estuary where fresh river water flows over saline seawater. Turbulence is the term used to characterize the complex, seemingly random motions that continually result from instabilities in fluid flows. Turbulence is ubiquitous in natural fluid flows because of the large scales that these flows typically have. The processes studied by EFM are very relevant to the environmental quality of the natural air and water systems as well of the urban systems interacting with the hydrosphere and the atmosphere. For this session papers reporting observational, experimental, numerical and theoretical investigations would be welcome. So the Session will be organized in two parts: Theoretical and Numerical aspects (Part 1) and Applicative, Software and Experimental issues (Part 2). This session could tentatively cover the following topics:Turbulent diffusion and mixing in natural and engineered water systems and in the atmosphereProcesses at the environmental interfaces in soil, atmosphere and natural watersTurbulent flowsNonlinear processes in environmental fluid mechanicsTwo-phase and multiphase flowsUrban physicsStratified flowsTransport of water and chemicals in the soilWater quality processes in open-channel flows and groundwater

Session E.4: New and Improved Methods in Agricultural Systems Modelling

Sustainable food-energy-water systems and emerging technologies raise challenges for modelling agricultural systems. We must move beyond modelling uniform fields of annual crops to address the issues at the core of this Congress. Models must be designed to deal with complex production systems: which vary spatially (e.g. widely-spaced agroforestry, skip-row cropping); where management exacerbates heterogeneity (e.g. residue management in oil palm plantations, nutrient transfers by livestock); or where the boundaries of the spatial unit are fluid in time (e.g. land that is a community resource).Agricultural models and their software need to be continually improved to accommodate these needs. We encourage submissions that focus on new/improved methods/approaches (rather than examples of usage) in order that the agricultural modellers can learn as a community.

Session E.5: Planning for Climate Change in Fragile Coastal Ecosystems

It is widely recognized that the Mediterranean region is a hot spot of climate change, and resilience and vulnerability in socio-ecological coastal systems are expected to be severely affected by climate change impacts such as rising sea level, higher rainfall variability, and increased storm frequency and intensity. The costs associated with mismanagement of climate change impacts can be very substantial. Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most Mediterranean coastal areas. Adapting to new conditions brought by climate change will be challenging and will demand strategic and creative thinking from coastal planners and others. This session will explore development and application of the latest thinking, theoretical approaches, models and practical tools to better understand, assess and plan for present and future climate change and variability in coastal areas. Presentations from scientists, researchers, planners, policy-makers, the private sector and community members that span many disciplines are welcome. Submissions of case studies dealing with vulnerability or resilience for human populations and natural systems in Mediterranean coastal areas affected by sea state change are encouraged.

Session E.6: Using Models to Simulate and Understand Hydrodynamic, Eutrophication, and Acidification Dynamics in Coastal Environments

Bays, estuaries, and other coastal environments are subject to a number of worsening environmental stressors, including climate change and acidification, shifting land-use dynamics, and increased anthropogenic nutrient loads. These combined stressors are predicted to exacerbate eutrophication of coastal environments, deteriorating water quality and impacting aquatic life via enhanced hypoxia and reduced water clarity. Nutrient enhanced coastal acidification, a process driven by excessive nutrient runoff and worsened by acidified waters due to climate change, is of particular concern due to harmful impacts of low oxygen and low pH to marine life. These water quality issues are further dependent on the changing hydrodynamic environment associated with future climate change and sea level rise. This session serves to provide a forum for presenting and discussing different modeling techniques and approaches to simulate current and future impacts to hydrodynamics and water quality of coastal environments. This includes modeling hydrodynamics of coastal ecosystems at different scales and complexities as well as simulations of water quality, including nutrients, hypoxia, acidification, and sediments. We also welcome presentations assessing different modeling management strategies, as well as presentations addressing the challenges, successes, and failures of model applications in coastal ecosystems.

Stream D

Stream D: System Identification and Uncertainty in Environmental Computing

Session D.0: General presentations on System Identification and Uncertainty in Environmental Computing

Presentations that do not fit in any of the specific sessions below are invited for submission to this general session on system identification and uncertainty in environmental computing.

Session D.1: Advances in Validation, Parameterization and Uncertainty Analysis of Agent-Based Models of Human-Environment Interactions

For this session we invite contributions that present and discuss approaches to critically assess validity and robustness in agent-based simulation studies of human-environment interactions. We invite presentations on case studies that (successfully or unsuccessfully) developed or applied innovative validation and parameterization strategies or adopted new approaches for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Conceptual work and literature reviews on the adoption of methodology for calibration, validation, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the field of social-ecological ABM are also welcome.

Session D.2: Complexity, Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Issues in Environmental Models

Session Organizers: Giorgio Mannina1, Francesca Pianosi2, Timothy Green3, Thorsten Wagener4 and Olaf David51 Engineering Department, Palermo University, Viale delle Scienze ed 8, 90128, Palermo Italy2 Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's School of Engineering, University of Bristol 1.51 Queen's Building, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR, UK3 USDA-ARS, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Water Management & Systems Research Unit Fort Collins, CO 805264 Institute of Environmental Science and Geography University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam-Golm, Germany5 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, 1372 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1372ObjectiveThe purpose of the following session is to provide a forum for a group of presentations focusing on complexity, sensitivity, and uncertainty issues in environmental models. The session offers an opportunity for the creation of a discussion platform for researchers involved in the development and application of modelling for the environmental models. More specifically, the session would present the last trends in system-wide modelling (mechanistic, data-driven, etc) and the techniques used to calibrate and validate these models (Bayesian, multiobjective optimization, etc) including uncertainty analysis. Further related topics regard: scale effects in uncertainty analysis (UA) of environmental models; uncertainty propagation in complex, environmental models with large parameter sets or high computational requirements. development and evaluation of UA methods that appropriately consider subjective and qualitative factors; evaluation of uncertainty in model outputs with respect to decision making or risk management objectives; assessing and quantifying information requirements (e.g., theories, data, models) to reduce predictive uncertainty in environmental models; methods for identifying and managing structural uncertainty and bias in environmental models.

Session D.3: Advances and Applications of Robust and Adaptive Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Decision making under deep uncertainty is an increasingly well-established topic area, with a range of methods to help make decisions that are robust and adaptive in the face of multiple plausible futures. This session aims to provide a venue within iEMSs2022 for cutting edge methods and applications in our community, recognising the importance of decision frameworks that explicitly address uncertainty in the broader context of System Identification and Uncertainty in Environmental Computing, as well as Decision making and Public participation in Environmental modelling. We welcome methodological advances, empirical insights, and emerging applications involving: - Decision making under deep uncertainty - Resilience, tipping points - Robustness metrics - Adaptive decision making, active adaptive management - Policy pathways - Flexibility in decision making - Value of information - Exploratory modelling - Scenario analysis - Visual analytics

Session D.4: Identifying and Achieving Good Modelling, Models, and Model Predictions

Good modelling practice is seeing a new wave of research as previous guidance reaches its teenage years, motivated by increasing mainstream use of models in high stakes policy contexts, new sources of data for validation and model building, and understanding of the subjective, social, and behavioural phenomena underpinning modelling. This session encourages a broad view on the topics of system identification, uncertainty, and validation with a focus on evaluating the quality of modelling, models, and model predictions. We welcome methodological contributions and empirical explorations of these issues from a variety of perspectives, including:- Efficient and effective modelling- Credibility, salience, and legitimacy- Usability, reliability and feasibility- Responsible, coherent and transparent use of modelling to support policy evidence bases- New techniques for model validation and benchmarking- Processes and criteria for establishing model quality- Organisational processes and institutions to support good modelling practice

Stream C

Stream C: Computational Methods, Workflows, Informatics and Integrated Systems in Environmental Modelling

Session C.0: General presentations on Computational Methods, Workflows, Informatics and Integrated Systems in Environmental Modelling

Session leader email: srei@ceh.ac.uk Presentations that do not fit in any of the specific sessions below are invited for submission to this general session on general presentations on computational methods, workflows, informatics and integrated systems in environmental modelling.

Session C.1: Advances in Calibration of Process Models and Consequent Training of Surrogate Models (Machine Learning)

Emerging surrogate models from process models require a progression of operations that cover the entire spectrum from process model calibration to surrogate model validation. Each step is an essential part of this pipeline that can make or break the final product. Since each step can be implemented in numerous ways, this session focuses on sharing successful applications and innovative approaches to build the pipeline. Potential topics for discussion within the session include, but are not limited to: Selection of objective functions;Evaluation of model metrics;Data splitting for cross-validation;Geospatial sampling and clustering;Parameter space dimensionality/complexity;Parameter non-uniqueness;A priori & a posteriori sensitivities;Error and uncertainty propagation from process models to surrogate models. Specific case studies that can be targeted are simulation of crop growth, water quality and quantity, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as other environmental modeling studies.

Session C.2: Cloud-based environmental models, data provisioning services, and infrastructures

There is growing interest in providing environmental modeling and data provisioning services through cloud-based infrastructures. Historically, environmental models and infrastructures were monolithic and cumbersome in implementation. Emerging environmental modelling problems require developing workflows which overcome these limitations. With advances in technology, we can leverage the strengths of moving from individual desktops into the cloud, such as scalable compute resources and increased data accessibility. This session serves to discuss multiple aspects of developing and deploying environmental software in the cloud, which include:Environmental models deployed in the cloud.Data provisioning services in the cloud for environmental modeling and characterizing watersheds, contaminants, and sources of contaminants.Environmental software deployment infrastructures, methodologies, technologies, patterns, and architectures.Environmental model and data integration using web services and REST API.Environmental models in different fields (e.g. climatology, hydrology) often rely on high resolution Land-Use or Land-Cover (LULC) data to characterise the physical and functional properties of the modelled environment. On one hand, future simulations in such domains can be coupled to the outcomes of scenarios provided by LULC models (e.g. urban growth models). At the same time, LULC models can also build on feedback of natural or socio-economic phenomena, and their expected impact on the land system. Coupled or integrated modelling approaches drawing on LULC information are hence increasingly needed to understand and address society-environment interactions in pursuit of more sustainable development. Yet several practical and conceptual problems remain to be solved. Models use different spatial or time scales, prefer other definitions of LULC classes, should deal with agent/cell heterogeneity, and modellers have to deal with error propagation between coupled/integrated models. In this session we welcome presentations on tools, methods and projects with an integrated modelling approach linked to LULC, where LULC data or models are adapted to environmental models, or environmental applications of LULC models. Critical appreciations, exposition of challenges or limitations in integrated LULC-environmental models, as well as proposals for solutions, are encouraged.

Session C.4: Reusable building blocks for agent-based models of social-environmental systems.

Agent-based models (ABM) of socio-environmental systems (SES), representing the behavior of organisms, human actors, or institutions, are usually fully developed from scratch. This is inefficient and leads to incoherent model designs, with multiple variations of how the same types of agents’ decisions are coded. Making ABMs open access is a major step towards transparency and reusability, but in practice long, complex, case- or problem-dependent computational codes are rarely reused. This hinders development of robust and effective SES ABM applications, that are well aligned with micro-level behavioral, social and ecological theories at the agent level and with the general system level theories. It is therefore important to adopt the strategy from other modelling communities to build a repository of reusable building blocks (RBB). This would help agent-based modelers to focus their energy and creativity on missing parts, and scientists without computer science background to efficiently assemble powerful simulation SES ABMs and concentrate on their particular research questions. RBBs are submodels of certain behaviors and processes which are likely to be important for many ABMs in a given discipline or application, for example foraging in ecology, farming decisions in land use models, or households’ decisions to install solar panels. An open access library of commonly used RBBs could rely on a solid theoretical microfoundations for agents rules of actions and interactions, be tested in different empirical SES contexts, and improve evolutionary over time. Established RBBs would have known properties, be well-tested by the community, and be reusable in different contexts. For this, they would need to be uploaded to repositories providing: source code, written model description, specification of required context, executable demonstration, and reports of tests and example applications. Also, RBB standards should be developed. For this session, we welcome contributions of specific candidate RBBs and of methodological considerations regarding the modular development of ABMs, including standardization of uploads, web-based resources, version control, incentives for uploading as well as pros and cons of using RBBs for theory development and advancing ABM applications for SES.

Stream B

Stream B: Processing and Visualizing Environmental Information from Big Data, Data mining, GIS, and Remote sensing

Session B.0: General presentations on Processing and Visualizing Environmental Information from Big Data, Data mining, GIS, and Remote sensing

Presentations that do not fit in any of the specific sessions below are invited for submission to this general session on processing and visualizing environmental information from big data, data mining, gis, and remote sensing.

Session B.1: Air Pollution Prediction, Assessment Demographic, Socio-economic, and Ethnic Inequalities in Exposure to Air Pollution, and Their Potential Impacts on Public Health

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that, “air pollution must be recognized as a major threat to human well-being”. According to the WHO, there is a direct link between air pollution and human health (such as high blood pressure, stress related illnesses, sleep disruption, and hearing loss, to cite a few). About 93% of all population live in environments with air pollution levels above the WHO guidelines. Although the potential health effects of exposure to air pollution are the same everywhere, there are considerable variation in the exposure levels depending on the demographic, socio-economic, ethnic, as well as the environmental context. Only a few recent epidemiological studies are available concerning the relationship of exposure to air pollution with the demographic, socio-economic, ethnic and, environmental context, and the consequent potential physical and/or mental comorbidities. For instance, it has been recognized that for a number of reasons the elderly, low-income individuals and ethnic groups are more exposed to air pollution, and that these vulnerable groups suffer from more health problems than the younger, wealthier, and white citizens, respectively. Consequently, it seems relevant to assess the exposure of demographic, socio-economic, and ethnic sub-populations to air pollution, considering their particular environmental settings like land use and greenness (degree of naturalness), and further evaluate if there exists a relationship with their physical and/or mental comorbidity patterns. Therefore, to cope with these and related challenges, the objective of this session is to present research and review papers in order to synthesize the discussion on the application of the latest advances in exposure/exposome which is a growing in importance in health research. In this session, we are looking for contributions that quantify air pollution and its distribution at fine temporal and spatial resolutions, individuals/population exposure in a dynamic environment and related inequality and health effect. Further, this special session aims to stimulate the development of novel algorithms using advanced technologies in the broadest sense in the era of Big Data, and machine learning. We encourage both theoretical as well as application-oriented papers dealing with these emerging issues. Our interest is in papers that cover a wide spectrum of methodological and domain-specific topics.

Session B.2: Eigth Session on Data Mining as a Tool for Environmental Scientists (S-DMTES-2022)

DMTES aims to approach and to promote the interaction between the Environmental Sciences community and the Data Mining/Data Science community and related fields, such as Artificial Intelligence, Statistics, Intelligent Decision Making Support Systems or other fields, all providing methodologies to extract added value from data, so that actionable knowledge to support further decision-making is generating. We invite submissions of papers and presentations about applications of data science, data mining and related methodologies to environmental problems. In this edition we encourage works oriented to explainable AI, digital transformation and H2030 agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). The session welcomes applications related with, but not limited to water, air quality and natural resources management to ecological footprint and circular economy or environmental policies, and works addressing issues related to data quality, explainability of models, and role in decision support processes. New or improved techniques or methods are welcomed, as well as innovative applications, including heterogenous sources of information, like classical data, images, open text, semmantic data, georeferenced data, data streams among others.

Session B.3: Hybrid Approaches to Analysis, Modelling and Prediction of Environmental Data in Support of Sustainability

The session invites original contributions on a wide range of environmental applications, such as renewable energy, resource management, ecosystem services, land and forest use, agriculture and food production, water cycle, air quality, climate change and its societal impacts based on hybrid approaches. The techniques include, but are not limited to, exploratory [Big] data analysis, dataset summarization, explainable feature engineering, hybrid models and joint prediction and explanation, backward propagation and proxy models, intelligent data analysis and its combination with process-based simulations and computational modelling, exploratory and confirmatory analysis. Hybrid frameworks and techniques, success stories of their application and lessons learned are of special interest.

Session B.4: Joint Use of Remote Sensing and Modelling Techniques for Water Management

In this session, we aim to explore the joint use of remote sensing and various (process based and data driven) modelling techniques to support water quantity and quality management. We welcome contributions where remote sensing supports hydrological and water quality modelling (eg model evaluation, model calibration, data assimilation…) for real time forecasting or long term projections. Also research where modelling supports monitoring are welcome, eg combined use of remote sensing and artificial intelligence. Both water quantity and water quality applications are invited. Our strongest interest goes to studies that are making a link with water management and/or practical applications.

Session B.5: Modelling and Managing Urban Water and Energy Resources in the Era of Big Data

Session Description: Modelling water and energy resources in urban environments is key to inform planning and management strategies, especially for futures characterized by population growth, urbanization, climate and land use change. Recent technological development and diffusion of advanced metering hardware, increasing data availability, emerging big data analytics, and data-learning techniques, are opening new opportunities to advance mathematical modelling and management of urban water and energy resources.This session provides an active forum to discuss urban water and energy resources modelling and management. Topics and applications could belong to any area of urban water and energy systems modelling and management, including intelligent metering, demand and supply modelling and optimization, multi-sectoral/multi-scale interconnections, big-data management, information extraction, and cyber-physical security. Organizers: Andrea Cominola, Technische Universität Berlin – Einstein Center Digital Future, GermanyRiccardo Taormina, Delft University of Technology, Department of Water Management, Netherlands Matteo Giuliani, Politecnico di Milano, ItalyStefano Galelli, Singapore University of Technology and Design, Singapore Andrea Castelletti, Politecnico di Milano, Italy.

Stream A

Stream A: Decision Making and Public Particision on decision making and public participation in environmental modelling.pation in Environmental Modelling

Session A.0: General Presentations on Decision Making and Public Participation in Environmental Modelling

This session seeks to bring together academic experts, action researchers and practitioners to explore recent developments in modelling with stakeholders. Presentations that do not fit in any of the specific sessions below are invited for submission to this general ses

Session A.1: Digital Twins and Their Applications to Environmental Systems

Digitalization is a key focus in transformation of environmental and process engingeering world in the recent years. One of the main derivatives of this transformation is the concept of Digital Twin (DT). DTs are virtual replicas of physical systems that can mimic the operation of the systems in real-time. Their applications in environmental context can be for drinking water systems, water resource recovery facilities, air quality systems, sewer networks, etc. The main elements that characterise a DT can be different depending on its application and specific objective. However, some that can be generally mentioned are integration with other parts of the system, using real-time data, recalibration/validation of the models, having a two-directional flow of information between models and physical systems, and being capable of predicting the state of the system for the near future. DTs can be operation-focused relying on (near) real-time data from the physical system or they can be used as a discision support tool for design, planning, construction and investment purposes. On the way of developing DT for a physical system, some challenges are present that need to be tackled. Choosing a right level of complexity for the models (mechanistic, data-driven or hybrid models) , data requirements and their quality, handling uncertainties, automatic model calibration/validation, trust in operational staff and managers to use and rely on DTs, are some examples of these challenges. This session will focus on DTs and their applications to environmental systems. It emphasizes on real case applications of DT for differentenvironmental sectors (e.g. drinking water, wastewater, air quality, etc.) and on the attempts to overcome the existing challenges for DT development.

Session A.2: Large-scale Impact Modelling Including ISIMIP

While the need for robust information on the impacts of climate change on various sectors is critical, uncertainties in impact assessments using individual large-scale models may be substantial. As a result, global efforts are shifting towards an intercomparison of large-scale climate impact models for a better understanding of potential uncertainty bounds. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) is a good example of such an effort and it designs and facilitates cross-sectoral and multi-model intercomparison impact of a 1.5°C and/or a 2°C global warming, as solicited by the IPCC’s special report on this topic and the upcoming sixth Assessment Report. This session focuses on how climate change impacts are modelled at large world regions (continental to global) and how these impacts can be compared across a range of sectors to capture potential uncertainties. Emphasis is placed on (i) the ability of models to represent observed impacts, (ii) the quantification of uncertainties and understanding of changes in impacts, and (iii) the attribution of the drivers of these changes. We welcome model inter-comparison studies using ISIMIP or other large-scale impact simulations under past, present and/or future climates.

Session A.3: 'Opening the Box of Modelling'

Methodologies have been proposed to open up the box of a given quantification to explore context, purpose, motivation and stakes behind a given number, especially when resulting from some kind of modelling process, as well as to provide pedigrees to discuss - in a participatory fashion, the relative merit of different proposed quantifications. Among those, NUSAP is a notational system for participatory analysis of the quality of quantification. It is based on five categories for characterizing any quantitative statement: Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree, where Numeral is in general an ordinary number, Unit refers to its units, and spread is an assessment of the error usually based on the statistical characteristics of the data. The next two categories extend the above to produce judgment on the quality of the quantification and of the team producing it. Assessment is a summary of salient qualitative judgements about the the number, and may involve the use of terms such as 'conservative' or 'optimistic'. Pedigree is an reasoned judgment about the mode of production and of anticipated use of the information. Both assessment and pedigree are meaningful in the context of participatory analysis. NUSAP was introduced by Silvio Funtowicz and Jerome Ravetz in the 1990 book Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy[1] and extensively applied by several investigators, among which Jeroen van der Sluijs and co-workers have led the most relevant applications[2], [3]. NUSAP is especially tailored for scientific work at the science-policy interface, and has been notably used in Europe by the European Food Safety Agency EFSA. Recent applications of NUSAP are to climate science, hydrology, medical research and risk assessment. Sensitivity auditing (SAUD) extends sensitivity analysis (SA) by zooming out from the mere technical mathematical or statistical dimensions of a model – and reflecting on its implicit or explicit assumptions, interests, and values[4]. SAUD takes models to be more than the translation of natural or human laws into lines of computer program or algorithms. Models are taken instead to reflect different visions of the world, of the nature of the problem tackled, and of the preferred end-in-sight. Sensitivity auditing is inspired by the epistemologies of post-normal science, for which uncertainty, quality, and values belong together in the use of science to tackle practical problems in society, the environment, and human health. Sensitivity auditing assumes settings where uncertainties, interests, and values are at stake in the taking of decisions based on different forms of quantification [5]. It is explicitly participative, and offers to its practitioners solid basis for both constructing and deconstructing cases at the science-policy interface. The proposed session aims to demonstrate the merit of NUSAP and SAUD based on a series of worked examples produced by practitioners directly involved in the development and application of these practices. REFERENCES [1] S. Funtowicz and J. R. Ravetz, Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy. Dordrecht: Kluwer, 1990. doi: 10.1007/978-94-009-0621-1_3. [2] J. P. van der Sluijs, M. Craye, S. Funtowicz, P. Kloprogge, J. R. Ravetz, and J. Risbey, “Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model-Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System,” Risk Analysis, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 481–492, May 2005. [3] J. P. van der Sluijs, J. S. Risbey, and J. R. Ravetz, “Uncertainty Assessment of Voc Emissions from Paint in the Netherlands Using the Nusap System,” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, vol. 105, no. 1–3, pp. 229–259, Jun. 2005, doi: 10.1007/s10661-005-3697-7. [4] A. Saltelli, . Guimaraes Pereira, J. P. van der Sluijs, and S. Funtowicz, “What do I make of your latinorumc Sensitivity auditing of mathematical modelling,” International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, vol. 9, no. 2/3/4, pp. 213–234, 2013, doi: 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058610. [5] S. Lo Piano, R. Sheikholeslami, A. Puy, and A. Saltelli, “Sensitivity auditing: an important ingredient in the evaluation of models and metrics,” Submitted, 2021.

Session A.4: Participatory Modelling for Sustainable Community Agri-water Management Practices: Case Studies From the Field

Smallholder farmers are facing a set of interconnected challenges that are making the sustainability of family farming problematic worldwide. Among these challenges is the sustainable access and use of water resources in a context of increased scarcity that has both anthropogenic and natural causes. In this session, we aim to gather case studies of collective agricultural water management practices using participatory approaches and modelling initiatives. We invite academics, decision makers, and activists to share their experience of such initiatives and reflect on their potential to support sustainable collective access to water by smallholder farmers. We welcome contributions describing the actors involved in participatory initiatives and their interests, the process of engagement that was followed, but also the tools that were used - from numerical models describing hydrological processes to serious games, and their effect on the actual management of surface or groundwater resources.Some of the questions these case studies could address are listed below: Emerging successful experiences in community led water management/governance. Who are the stakeholders and how to engage them?Challenges in conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, impact of climate change on present and future water resource use role of government in promoting decentralised water management: Challenges and opportunities to water resources policy to promote their sustainable use.

Session A.5: Gamification of Participatory Modeling and Decision Making: Applicability and Limitations

The long history of using game design in simulation modeling and public policy contexts gives much promise for gamifying participatory modeling (PM). The use of serious games and incorporation of game elements in the traditional PM process commonly aim to increase engagement, reinforce risk-free experimentation, reflect on the diversity of perspectives through roleplay, and even facilitate the process of knowledge elicitation and exchange. Designing gamified activities is a craft that includes considerable play testing, trials and errors. Hence, reflection is needed on existing practices of gamified PM, usefulness of citizen engagement in game design and the ways of arranging it . In this session, while looking at diverse application cases and theoretical papers, we would like to reflect on the following questions: (1) what should be the criteria for using game design in PM, (2) what can help PM practitioners to experiment with game design and report on the results (including unsuccessful ones), and (3) what sorts of adjacent disciplines/approaches/methods combine well with gamification for a more enhanced PM process.

Session A.6: Cross-impact balances (CIB): state of the art and future avenues

Cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) introduced by Weimer-Jehle in 2006 has become an established approach in socio-environmental scenario building in the fields of climate change, energy transition, water management and many others. With today at least 300 applications by 80 organizations, this semi-quantitative form of systems analysis (conceptual modeling) can be considered state of the art in qualitative yet systematic scenario construction. CIB plays an increasing role in socio-environmental modelling: it is used to assure internal consistency of qualitative scenarios and to build and select sets of context scenarios for environmental (numerical) modeling. At the same time, new applications (e.g. for policy design, for the integration of knowledge and across scales) and new methodological developments (e.g. for data collection, data analysis and scenario presentation) are being developed. Therefore, we would like to invite the growing CIB research community, experienced users but also newcomers, to discuss state of the art applications as well as future research avenues. At the moment, we strive for a format in presence. We invite: · Case studies using CIB for scenario exercises with a focus on less classical functions as e.g. decision support, visioning· Case studies using CIB for policy analysis and design or for integration, e.g. across scales· Case studies advancing the analytical possibilities of CIB as e.g. to represent dynamics· Case studies using innovative methodological designs of CIB processes (e.g. participatory modeling, combinations with GIS or Delphi approaches etc.)· Other innovative applications and developments, as innovative application fields in science, corporate world and administrations We particularly welcome: · Overview presentations reflecting strengths and limits of CIB as well as open questions · Methodological presentation comparing different CIB methodologies and designs or comparing CIB with other approaches The interactive session will be the starting point for developing an edited volume on the frontiers of CIB research jointly with the participants. A follow up workshop/discussion session will also be organised at iEMSs2022.

Online and Poster Presentations