Climate adaptive water management of land-sea systems

The H2020 project COASTAL develops evidence-based policy recommendations supporting sustainable development at the land-sea interface. Key to this process is a powerful approach that combines stakeholder engagement, scenario analysis and System Dynamics (SD) modelling, which was tested in six coastal areas. One of these areas is the Oudlandpolder, a region between the Belgian coastal cities Oostende and Zeebrugge and the more inland situated city of Brugge, where a Framework Agreement has been signed recently to enable more differentiated and climate-proof water management in the region. The implementation of this agreement takes place through, amongst others, a land development project investigating water related issues such as hydrological compartmentalization, surface water level management, creek ridge infiltration and discharge possibilities to the sea. Our presentation will focus on (1) the proof-of-concept tool we developed to feed this land development project and (2) the participatory process in which this tool is used to create recommendations feeding the spatial planning process deciding on the demarcation of natural and agricultural structures in the Oudlandpolder. This tool makes use of a scenario-driven SD model describing the short- and long-term interactions between land use, climate change, water use and combinations of water management actions. The scenarios integrated in the tool were co-created with experts on sustainable agriculture, nature development, tourism and land use. In parallel, we also co-created a set of shared principles for the future development of the Oudlandpolder with a diversity of stakeholders (e.g., local municipalities, farmer organizations, nature conservationists and water authorities). The modelling results were used to explain the potential impact of water management actions linked to these principles. Our presentation will show the added value of this tool in participatory processes to understand the systemic causes underlying water management problems and how to address these under different scenarios of socio-economic and climate change.