Simulation of land use change along the Silk Road under the constraint of sustainable development goals

Sustainable development is the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the own needs of future generations, which requires building an inclusive, sustainable and resilient future for people and the planet. To achieve sustainable development, three interconnected key factors must be coordinated: economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection. The United Nations has established 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) calling on the entire world to work together to end poverty, safeguard the environment, and improve the lives and futures of all people. Land resources are an important aspect of natural resources since they provide the foundation for human exploitation and consumption of the land as well as the acquisition of living materials. The sustainable use of land resources is critical for the economy, society, and environment to flourish in a way that is sustainable. This study selects 66 countries along the Silk Road as the research area, and divides the characteristics in research region according to the economic and climatic conditions of each country, thereby analyzing the historical development trend of land use change in the Slik Road region. At the same time, four sustainable development scenarios (reference scenario, environmental protection scenario, economic development scenario and grain production scenario) are set according to the Sustainable Development Report 2020 released by the United Nations. A system dynamics model integrating socioeconomic and natural factors is used to predict land use change in 2030. The results show that different sustainable development scenarios have significant impacts on different types of land resources. The area of urban land expands the fastest under the economic development scenario, while the cultivated land declined slowly under the grain production scenario and the forest land decreases slowly the environmental protection scenario, respectively. This study can provide a basis for judging the land sustainability of countries along the Silk Road.