Modelling Climate Change Impacts on the Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Various studies have investigated the potential impacts of future climate on water, energy, or food production separately. However, the impacts of climate change on the nexus between these interacting sectors is only recently gaining attention. At present, no quantitative modelling and global analysis is available to show the impacts of climate change on the water, energy and food (WEF) nexus. Two approaches can be followed to quantify the WEF nexus. The first is to use an integrated assessment model, using a model that includes modules for water, energy, and food. The second approach is to use separate cutting-edge models from each field and bring simulation results from these models together. The Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) proposes to apply this second approach. In ISIMIP, many model groups provide impact model data for a variety of sectors with the same climate forcing and climate scenarios on a global scale. In this study, we analyse how climate change affects the WEF nexus by combining data from global spatially distributed models of water, energy and food supply with demand data for these sectors. Through combining the results from these sectors, we identify ‘hotspot’ regions for potential conflicts, threats and opportunities in a changing climate. The resulting maps identify regions of conflict or synergy between water, energy, and food production, and can be used not only as a basis for future studies assessing resource conflicts but also as indicators for opportunities for policy makers.