Paper/Poster/Presentation Title
Keywords
Dengue forecasting, Earth Observations, data integration, climate forecasting, sustainable development goals
Start Date
15-9-2020 5:20 PM
End Date
15-9-2020 5:40 PM
Abstract
Dengue fever now occurs in 141 countries and it is estimated that half of the world’s population are now at risk from the disease. 122,000 cases were reported in Vietnam in 2016 and this was followed by major outbreaks in 2017 and 2019 across the whole of SE Asia. Studies have emphasised significant links between climate variability and infectious diseases such as dengue fever, highlighting the potential for the development of modelling systems with the capability of predicting the probability of disease outbreaks several months in advance. Following the initial concept presentation at iEMSs 2018, this presentation introduces the D-MOSS dengue fever forecasting system, which has now been prototyped in Vietnam and is being introduced to six other countries in South and SE Asia. Sponsored by the UK Space Agency, D-MOSS integrates multiple stressors such as water availability, land-cover, precipitation and temperature sourced from Earth Observation and ground-based sensors. These datasets are integrated with observed dengue fever cases, El Niño indexes and the UK Met Office’s GloSea5 seasonal climate forecast into a statistical model which produces probabilistic dengue fever forecasts from one to six months ahead. This forecast is used by local agencies to plan and implement preventative actions. A forecast of water availability is also produced by the system that enables improved water management in transboundary river basins. D-MOSS contributes to SDG3 – “Good Health and Wellbeing”, in particular through targets 3.3 and 3.D through strengthening the capacity of developing countries for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks and through ending epidemics. The system also contributes to SDG6 – “Clean Water and Sanitation” by helping to implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation, by substantially increasing increase water-use efficiency and by implementing integrated water resources management, including through transboundary cooperation.
The D-MOSS dengue fever forecasting system
Dengue fever now occurs in 141 countries and it is estimated that half of the world’s population are now at risk from the disease. 122,000 cases were reported in Vietnam in 2016 and this was followed by major outbreaks in 2017 and 2019 across the whole of SE Asia. Studies have emphasised significant links between climate variability and infectious diseases such as dengue fever, highlighting the potential for the development of modelling systems with the capability of predicting the probability of disease outbreaks several months in advance. Following the initial concept presentation at iEMSs 2018, this presentation introduces the D-MOSS dengue fever forecasting system, which has now been prototyped in Vietnam and is being introduced to six other countries in South and SE Asia. Sponsored by the UK Space Agency, D-MOSS integrates multiple stressors such as water availability, land-cover, precipitation and temperature sourced from Earth Observation and ground-based sensors. These datasets are integrated with observed dengue fever cases, El Niño indexes and the UK Met Office’s GloSea5 seasonal climate forecast into a statistical model which produces probabilistic dengue fever forecasts from one to six months ahead. This forecast is used by local agencies to plan and implement preventative actions. A forecast of water availability is also produced by the system that enables improved water management in transboundary river basins. D-MOSS contributes to SDG3 – “Good Health and Wellbeing”, in particular through targets 3.3 and 3.D through strengthening the capacity of developing countries for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks and through ending epidemics. The system also contributes to SDG6 – “Clean Water and Sanitation” by helping to implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation, by substantially increasing increase water-use efficiency and by implementing integrated water resources management, including through transboundary cooperation.
Stream and Session
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