Keywords
Biodiversity, Habitat restoration, Agent-based model, Policy, SDG 15
Start Date
17-9-2020 1:40 PM
End Date
17-9-2020 2:00 PM
Abstract
BioOffset-Emergent is a spatially-explicit, agent-based model of a multi-trophic, socio-ecological system. It investigates the potential impacts of different biodiversity offsetting policy options on net biodiversity. Biodiversity offsetting is being promoted internationally as a means of facilitating socio-economically beneficial infrastructure development whilst avoiding losses to net biodiversity. Where biodiversity would be unavoidably lost as a result of infrastructure development, similar habitat in another offset location is created to restore the lost biodiversity or improve upon it. BioOffset-Emergent models the components, on a 2D raster grid, of a complex socio-ecological system in which a multi-tropic woodland ecosystem - featuring trees, the bugs that parasite them and the birds that feed off the bugs, as agents - is being fragmented by urban expansion and infrastructure developments. During simulations, several different ecosystem epiphenomena emerge, such as vegetation succession; habitat fragmentation; habitat (de)colonisation; species extinction. Based on biodiversity offsetting guidelines, the simulation provides a number of policy option switches that can be tested in silico. These include contractual responsibility period (how many years the offset creator is responsible for restoring biodiversity in the offset location); and the level of enforcement of the quality of the offset location management. Net biodiversity levels are indicated over time by the change in number of plant, insect and animal species interacting in remaining habitats. Monte Carlo simulation results across the different policy lever options provide an important insight: Outside of either the strongest or the weakest settings of the policy levers, the level of uncertainty of the impacts of biodiversity offsetting on biodiversity levels can be high. At these settings, whether biodiversity is successfully restored appears to be dependent on contingent diachronicity, i.e. the fortunate coincidence that remnant bird and bug populations can colonise the right woodland habitat fragment at the right time, and in the right order.
Contingent Diachronicity and Biodiversity: Lessons from an agent-based model simulating the impact of biodiversity offsetting policy in a complex, socio-ecological system
BioOffset-Emergent is a spatially-explicit, agent-based model of a multi-trophic, socio-ecological system. It investigates the potential impacts of different biodiversity offsetting policy options on net biodiversity. Biodiversity offsetting is being promoted internationally as a means of facilitating socio-economically beneficial infrastructure development whilst avoiding losses to net biodiversity. Where biodiversity would be unavoidably lost as a result of infrastructure development, similar habitat in another offset location is created to restore the lost biodiversity or improve upon it. BioOffset-Emergent models the components, on a 2D raster grid, of a complex socio-ecological system in which a multi-tropic woodland ecosystem - featuring trees, the bugs that parasite them and the birds that feed off the bugs, as agents - is being fragmented by urban expansion and infrastructure developments. During simulations, several different ecosystem epiphenomena emerge, such as vegetation succession; habitat fragmentation; habitat (de)colonisation; species extinction. Based on biodiversity offsetting guidelines, the simulation provides a number of policy option switches that can be tested in silico. These include contractual responsibility period (how many years the offset creator is responsible for restoring biodiversity in the offset location); and the level of enforcement of the quality of the offset location management. Net biodiversity levels are indicated over time by the change in number of plant, insect and animal species interacting in remaining habitats. Monte Carlo simulation results across the different policy lever options provide an important insight: Outside of either the strongest or the weakest settings of the policy levers, the level of uncertainty of the impacts of biodiversity offsetting on biodiversity levels can be high. At these settings, whether biodiversity is successfully restored appears to be dependent on contingent diachronicity, i.e. the fortunate coincidence that remnant bird and bug populations can colonise the right woodland habitat fragment at the right time, and in the right order.
Stream and Session
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