Keywords
interval analysis, conceptual model, uncertainty, feedback
Location
Session C1: Compexity, Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Issues in Integrated Environmental Models
Start Date
16-6-2014 10:40 AM
End Date
16-6-2014 12:00 PM
Abstract
Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of information about the input, discretization of the model equations resulting in errors due to the discretization scheme and the use of finite precision calculations in model evaluation. Interval analysis can provide upper bounds on the output error due to all of these sources. This paper focuses on tracking uncertainty about input values and the effects of finite precision calculation. A conventional hydrological model was recoded in interval arithmetic and run with small, but non-zero uncertainty bounds on the input time series values to see whether the internal feedback loops would keep the output uncertainty bounded.
Included in
Civil Engineering Commons, Data Storage Systems Commons, Environmental Engineering Commons, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons
Feedback versus uncertainty
Session C1: Compexity, Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Issues in Integrated Environmental Models
Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of information about the input, discretization of the model equations resulting in errors due to the discretization scheme and the use of finite precision calculations in model evaluation. Interval analysis can provide upper bounds on the output error due to all of these sources. This paper focuses on tracking uncertainty about input values and the effects of finite precision calculation. A conventional hydrological model was recoded in interval arithmetic and run with small, but non-zero uncertainty bounds on the input time series values to see whether the internal feedback loops would keep the output uncertainty bounded.
