Operational Flash Flood Warning Systems with Global Applicability

Session C1: Complexity, Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Issues in Integrated Environmental Models

The availability of global meteorological information (observations and forecasts) and widespread digital data on the land surface now affords the use of hydrometeorological modelling in an operational environment to provide numerical guidance for local forecasts and warnings of flash flooding by meteorological and disaster management agencies, Flash floods are among the deadliest natural disasters and can have significant impact on the natural environment and infrastructure, Working with national meteorological and hydrologic services, the Hydrologic Research Center has developed and implemented regional software systems to convey remotely sensed data and guidance products for rapid decisions regarding flash flood warnings, The systems integrate satellite-based and in-situ observations of precipitation with hydrologic models of the land surface to provide real-time assessment of hydrologic conditions at small spatial scales characteristic of flash flood occurrence, System design includes regional and local components to accommodate (a) the need for computational power at the regional level to process spatially distributed real-time data, and (b) the capability for local forecaster adjustments in real-time a quick warning dissemination through appropriate local channels, Regional or country operational systems have been implemented (or are under development) in Central America, Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, the Black Sea-Middle East region, Southeastern Europe, South Asia, Romania, Mexico, and the Republic of South Africa, This paper highlights the system design, capabilities, and challenges faced, including the characterization and conveyance of local forecast uncertainty in decision making by NMHSs, effective forecaster training, and effective dissemination to disaster response organizations.