An Integrated Multi-Scaled Decision Support Framework Used in the Formulation and Evaluation of Land-Use Planning Scenarios for the Growth of Hervey Bay

An Integrated Multi-Scaled Decision Support Framework Used in the Formulation and Evaluation of Land-Use Planning Scenarios for the Growth of Hervey Bay

This paper investigates how demographic (socio-economic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a multi-scaled decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case study approach is undertaken using ‘what-if’ planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area requires careful planning of future urban growth between competing land-uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A - ‘business as usual’ is based on existing socio-economic trends. Scenario B – ‘maximisation of rates base’ has been derived using optimisation modelling of land valuation data. Scenario C – ‘sustainable development’ has been derived using a number of environmental layers and assigning weightings of importance to each layer using a multiple criteria analysis (MCA) approach. The ‘what-if’ planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system (GIS), which delineate future possible land-use location-allocations. Work is currently being undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of each of the three modelling approaches utilised in formulating the different scenarios using both comparative analysis and a goals achievement matrix (GAM), based upon a number of criteria which are derived from key policy objectives outlined in; the regional growth management framework for the Wide Bay Region, and the Hervey Bay City Planning Scheme. The outcomes of this paper discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each of the three modelling approaches with respect to formulating future urban growth scenarios.