1st International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - Lugano, Switzerland - June 2002
Keywords
decision analysis, analytical hierarchy process, stakeholder influence, stakeholder preferences, public choice
Start Date
1-7-2002 12:00 AM
Abstract
Natural resource management decisions are complicated by multiple property rights, management objectives, and stakeholders with varying degrees of influence over the decision making process. Managers must consider all opinions when they develop management policies. Often this type of information is not understood until after a decision has been made, which can result in wasted time and effort. We developed an institutional framework to predict stakeholders’ influence in the resource management decision-making process before the stakeholder meetings actually occur. Then we applied the framework to an actual case study concerning whether to feed elk over the winter in the Greater Yellowstone Area. To develop the framework, we combined concepts from decision analysis, political and institutional analysis, and public choice economics. The intent is to assist decision makers and stakeholders by developing a methodology for formally incorporating stakeholders’ objectives and influence into the resource management planning process and to predict the potential success of rent-seeking activity (interest groups trying to gain the upper hand) based on stakeholder preferences and level of influence. We interviewed 30 stakeholder groups in person with three different surveys. We used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) along with a political science model to assess what types of political and resource power groups had and what types of power they thought would matter most in influencing decisions. We also used the AHP to determine weighted preferences for different policy outcomes. Combining this information, we predicted the level of support and conflict for all relevant policy decisions, and we identified who would support or oppose each decision.
Feeding Elk in Greater Yellowstone: A Case Study in Ex-ante Group Decision Support
Natural resource management decisions are complicated by multiple property rights, management objectives, and stakeholders with varying degrees of influence over the decision making process. Managers must consider all opinions when they develop management policies. Often this type of information is not understood until after a decision has been made, which can result in wasted time and effort. We developed an institutional framework to predict stakeholders’ influence in the resource management decision-making process before the stakeholder meetings actually occur. Then we applied the framework to an actual case study concerning whether to feed elk over the winter in the Greater Yellowstone Area. To develop the framework, we combined concepts from decision analysis, political and institutional analysis, and public choice economics. The intent is to assist decision makers and stakeholders by developing a methodology for formally incorporating stakeholders’ objectives and influence into the resource management planning process and to predict the potential success of rent-seeking activity (interest groups trying to gain the upper hand) based on stakeholder preferences and level of influence. We interviewed 30 stakeholder groups in person with three different surveys. We used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) along with a political science model to assess what types of political and resource power groups had and what types of power they thought would matter most in influencing decisions. We also used the AHP to determine weighted preferences for different policy outcomes. Combining this information, we predicted the level of support and conflict for all relevant policy decisions, and we identified who would support or oppose each decision.
