1st International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - Lugano, Switzerland - June 2002
Keywords
scenario analysis, multiperiod dynamic network, optimization under uncertainty
Start Date
1-7-2002 12:00 AM
Abstract
In this paper we present a scenario analysis approach to perform water system planning andmanagement under climatic and hydrological uncertainty. A DSS with a a graphical interface allows the user afriendly data-input phase and results analysis.Different generation techniques can be used to set up and analyze a number of scenarios. Uncertainty ismodeled by a scenario-tree in a multistage environment, which includes different possible configurations ofinflows in a wide time-horizon. The aim is to identify trends and essential features on which to base a robustdecision policy.The DSS prevent obsolescence of optimizer codes exploiting the standard input format MPS. Obtained resultsshow that scenario analysis could be an alternative approach to stochastic optimization when no probabilisticrules can be adopted and deterministic models are inadequate to represent uncertainty. Moreover,experimentation to a real water resources system in Sardinia, Italy, shows that the DSS can be easily used bypractitioners and end-users.
A DSS for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty
In this paper we present a scenario analysis approach to perform water system planning andmanagement under climatic and hydrological uncertainty. A DSS with a a graphical interface allows the user afriendly data-input phase and results analysis.Different generation techniques can be used to set up and analyze a number of scenarios. Uncertainty ismodeled by a scenario-tree in a multistage environment, which includes different possible configurations ofinflows in a wide time-horizon. The aim is to identify trends and essential features on which to base a robustdecision policy.The DSS prevent obsolescence of optimizer codes exploiting the standard input format MPS. Obtained resultsshow that scenario analysis could be an alternative approach to stochastic optimization when no probabilisticrules can be adopted and deterministic models are inadequate to represent uncertainty. Moreover,experimentation to a real water resources system in Sardinia, Italy, shows that the DSS can be easily used bypractitioners and end-users.
