Paper/Poster/Presentation Title

DAESim: A Dynamic Agro-Ecosystem Simulation Model

Keywords

Integrated modelling; ecosystem service; carbon sequestration; regenerative agriculture

Start Date

5-7-2022 2:40 PM

End Date

5-7-2022 3:00 PM

Abstract

In a world of increasing population, changing climate, and decreasing availability of arable land, there is an urgent need to preserve and improve the quality of our agricultural ecosystems. Agriculture in Australia has always been vulnerable to extreme weather patterns and other environmental hazards. As such, risk and resilience are crucial factors in managing its social-ecological farming systems. With mounting pressures of climate variability, threats to sustainable food production increase in frequency and intensity, constituting significant risks to farmers, consumers, and the financial and policy institutions supporting these systems. Such risks are a strong incentive for the joint development of methods directed at their integrated analysis and prediction. Better-informed farm management procedures based on integrated modeling would reduce risk while enhancing structural resilience and long-term wellbeing. To better understand and forecast alternative futures for agricultural production, we have developed a dynamic simulation model named DAESIM. Our proposed integrated model is intended to be extensive in its reach, combining analysis of the economic aspects of risk with climate-based yield stability forecasts. It encompasses the environmental and social capital considerations underlying individual and societal wellbeing. The model outputs are valuable to farmers, land managers, and policymakers seeking to support the agricultural sector. To date, financial institutions have not supported farming methodologies that prioritize values other than short-term profit – this has suppressed the development of integrated farming models with long time horizons. The banking sector relies overwhelmingly on conventional mechanisms that do not account for social and environmental worth. Intended outcomes of the proposed research would include the amendment of policy to reward, or at the very least not punish, farmers who adopt long-term approaches. For farmers seeking to build resilience against environmental hazards, establishing a firm causal connection between natural capital and financial performance can justify trade-offs against immediate profit and provide financial and government institutions with the means to value and manage those decisions.

Stream and Session

false

COinS
 
Jul 5th, 2:40 PM Jul 5th, 3:00 PM

DAESim: A Dynamic Agro-Ecosystem Simulation Model

In a world of increasing population, changing climate, and decreasing availability of arable land, there is an urgent need to preserve and improve the quality of our agricultural ecosystems. Agriculture in Australia has always been vulnerable to extreme weather patterns and other environmental hazards. As such, risk and resilience are crucial factors in managing its social-ecological farming systems. With mounting pressures of climate variability, threats to sustainable food production increase in frequency and intensity, constituting significant risks to farmers, consumers, and the financial and policy institutions supporting these systems. Such risks are a strong incentive for the joint development of methods directed at their integrated analysis and prediction. Better-informed farm management procedures based on integrated modeling would reduce risk while enhancing structural resilience and long-term wellbeing. To better understand and forecast alternative futures for agricultural production, we have developed a dynamic simulation model named DAESIM. Our proposed integrated model is intended to be extensive in its reach, combining analysis of the economic aspects of risk with climate-based yield stability forecasts. It encompasses the environmental and social capital considerations underlying individual and societal wellbeing. The model outputs are valuable to farmers, land managers, and policymakers seeking to support the agricultural sector. To date, financial institutions have not supported farming methodologies that prioritize values other than short-term profit – this has suppressed the development of integrated farming models with long time horizons. The banking sector relies overwhelmingly on conventional mechanisms that do not account for social and environmental worth. Intended outcomes of the proposed research would include the amendment of policy to reward, or at the very least not punish, farmers who adopt long-term approaches. For farmers seeking to build resilience against environmental hazards, establishing a firm causal connection between natural capital and financial performance can justify trade-offs against immediate profit and provide financial and government institutions with the means to value and manage those decisions.