Keywords

Component-based modelling; model reusability; System Dynamics; generic archetypes; socioenvironmentalmodelling

Start Date

7-7-2022 7:20 AM

End Date

7-7-2022 7:40 AM

Abstract

A powerful combination of stakeholder engagement, scenario analysis and System Dynamics (SD) modelling was adopted in the EU funded project COASTAL (https://h2020-coastal.eu) to generate evidencebased policy recommendations for sustainable development of regions at the land-sea interface. The project is organized around six case areas or Multi-Actor Labs. Stakeholders and domain experts interacted to design Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) capturing land-sea interactions and feedback mechanisms. Quantification of these CLDs allowed further analysis, such as the pinpointing of ‘tipping points'. Typical questions answered are: why do certain businesses fail and others not under similar circumstances? Why do certain management strategies work in the short term, but not in the long term? Although individual mental models can provide part of the answers this becomes more difficult when multiple factors play a role. This is certainly true for complex social-environmental systems such as coastal regions which are densely used and rapidly developing, with economic activities competing for space, water, and other resources. SD modelling with the Multi-Actor Labs was facilitated with a toolbox of tutorial examples and generic archetypes, reusable model components generating specific behavior patterns. These helped less experienced modelers with developing their models in a more step-wise and structured manner. The toolbox will be made available through an open data repository, enabling further application and development aimed at increasing the scope, reusability and interoperability of the toolset. The practical value and limitations of generic model structures for supporting socio-environmental modelling will be discussed by means of examples taken from the COASTAL project.

Stream and Session

false

COinS
 
Jul 7th, 7:20 AM Jul 7th, 7:40 AM

Application of generic model components for environmental policyanalysis

A powerful combination of stakeholder engagement, scenario analysis and System Dynamics (SD) modelling was adopted in the EU funded project COASTAL (https://h2020-coastal.eu) to generate evidencebased policy recommendations for sustainable development of regions at the land-sea interface. The project is organized around six case areas or Multi-Actor Labs. Stakeholders and domain experts interacted to design Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) capturing land-sea interactions and feedback mechanisms. Quantification of these CLDs allowed further analysis, such as the pinpointing of ‘tipping points'. Typical questions answered are: why do certain businesses fail and others not under similar circumstances? Why do certain management strategies work in the short term, but not in the long term? Although individual mental models can provide part of the answers this becomes more difficult when multiple factors play a role. This is certainly true for complex social-environmental systems such as coastal regions which are densely used and rapidly developing, with economic activities competing for space, water, and other resources. SD modelling with the Multi-Actor Labs was facilitated with a toolbox of tutorial examples and generic archetypes, reusable model components generating specific behavior patterns. These helped less experienced modelers with developing their models in a more step-wise and structured manner. The toolbox will be made available through an open data repository, enabling further application and development aimed at increasing the scope, reusability and interoperability of the toolset. The practical value and limitations of generic model structures for supporting socio-environmental modelling will be discussed by means of examples taken from the COASTAL project.