Development of a UK coupled regional environmental prediction system for simulating and understanding air-land-sea interactions at convective-scale resolutions

More accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. Regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated, offer a framework within which this capability can be developed. We report on the activities of the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project, which has provided the first implementation of an atmosphere–land–ocean–wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UK coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model, UM), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. Priorities are presented for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems.