From individual energy behavioral changes to carbon emissions and public health: A new integrated framework

Defining feasible and cost-effective low-emission pathways are crucial in the transition to sustainable societies. In this context, scenario-based model projections play an important role in evaluating different mitigation options. Current macroeconomic models are widely used to develop climate change mitigation scenarios by finding cost-optimal solutions for total societal costs. Yet, decision-making tools to assess the impact of individual behavioral and lifestyle changes on energy consumption and carbon emissions are scarce. This is surprising, given the importance of diversity/heterogeneity in personal and social factors that influence decisions beyond purely economic considerations. The macroeconomic impacts of individual energy behavioral changes on carbon emissions are explored by using agent-based modelling techniques. We further extend the framework to include the impact of air pollutants from fossil fuel-fired electricity generating units (EGUs) and residential combustion on public health. Air pollution-related public health benefits of these strategies can be appreciable, with thousands of lives saved per year and an array of morbidity benefits from CO2 control strategies that include residential energy efficiency. In this (ongoing) research, we present a novel integrated modular framework to capture climate-health benefits of residential energy behavioural change, considering EGUs and residential combustion. This framework consists of several analysis components and two main models: a bottom-up energy behavioral agent-based model (BENCH model); and an air pollution and climate integrated assessment model (GAINS model). These two models are linked systematically. The BENCH model introduces set of end-user behavioral and social scenarios. As a result, the aggregated changes in residential energy updates GAINS residential energy demand, where ambient air pollution and health impact are determined at the macro scale. This framework supports policy-makers’ decision on climate mitigation options by launching bottom-up (behavioral and social) end-user policies into top-down (monetary incentives) climate-energy-economy macro policies.