Keywords
Policy support; foresight; scenario development; integrated modelling; sustainable agriculture
Start Date
15-9-2020 12:20 PM
End Date
15-9-2020 12:40 PM
Abstract
European agriculture faces a real challenge: it must reduce its negative environmental impacts but also remain competitive. A key area of concern is the ongoing degradation of agricultural soils, which is likely to increase further in the coming decades because of climate and socio-economic factors. While there are well-known agricultural management techniques that can help to improve soil quality, uptake of these techniques remains low in Europe - despite various policy incentives. The SoilCare project studies the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, in particular those related to improving soil quality. To do so, it looks at various scales (from local to European level) at the bio-physical, socio-economic, political, and technological factors impacting on adoption of these practices. Knowing that these factors will change and interact over time in complex ways, bringing inherent uncertainties with them, we carry out a foresight approach to deal with these complexities and future uncertainties. We use a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques in a multi-actor approach to develop scenarios for agricultural practices in Europe that are both sustainable and profitable. Based on interviews with stakeholders at European level, policy-relevant scenario framing is determined along two axes: future challenges for voluntary instruments and future challenges for mandatory instruments. This was subsequently used as the basis for qualitative scenario development in a participatory setting to create narrative storylines. We developed a tailor-made integrated assessment model to quantify these storylines, and to assess their impact on soil quality and farm profitability. Finally, the combined results of the modelling and the narratives provide input in identifying best policy approaches, tailored to different contexts and future pathways. This presentation will focus on the process of integrating information from various sources using several different techniques, as well as on the link from developed scenarios to policy support.
Using foresight to tailor policy approaches for sustainable agricultural practices
European agriculture faces a real challenge: it must reduce its negative environmental impacts but also remain competitive. A key area of concern is the ongoing degradation of agricultural soils, which is likely to increase further in the coming decades because of climate and socio-economic factors. While there are well-known agricultural management techniques that can help to improve soil quality, uptake of these techniques remains low in Europe - despite various policy incentives. The SoilCare project studies the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, in particular those related to improving soil quality. To do so, it looks at various scales (from local to European level) at the bio-physical, socio-economic, political, and technological factors impacting on adoption of these practices. Knowing that these factors will change and interact over time in complex ways, bringing inherent uncertainties with them, we carry out a foresight approach to deal with these complexities and future uncertainties. We use a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques in a multi-actor approach to develop scenarios for agricultural practices in Europe that are both sustainable and profitable. Based on interviews with stakeholders at European level, policy-relevant scenario framing is determined along two axes: future challenges for voluntary instruments and future challenges for mandatory instruments. This was subsequently used as the basis for qualitative scenario development in a participatory setting to create narrative storylines. We developed a tailor-made integrated assessment model to quantify these storylines, and to assess their impact on soil quality and farm profitability. Finally, the combined results of the modelling and the narratives provide input in identifying best policy approaches, tailored to different contexts and future pathways. This presentation will focus on the process of integrating information from various sources using several different techniques, as well as on the link from developed scenarios to policy support.
Stream and Session
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