End-of-life management of rooftop solar photovoltaic: A system dynamics approach

As rooftop solar photovoltaic uptake in Australia is exponentially growing in the past decade, there is a need to promote effective product stewardship for managing solar panels reaching their end-of-life. This paper presents the development of a System Dynamics model for analysing photovoltaic product stewardship transitions. We used residential-scale solar for the case study in the model. Four stages of the System Dynamics modelling process include problem scoping and variable identification, model conceptualisation, quantitative model development and scenario analysis. Stakeholder engagement is central to this research as the system under study is underpinned by high uncertainties and limited data availability. Four socio-technical transition pathways were examined, included market-driven growth, conservative development, shared responsibility, and disruptive change. The scenario analysis indicated that an improvement of collection and recovery performance when a stringent product stewardship scheme is enabled along with the improvement of installers’ participation in the collection program. This research argued that a system of shared responsibility will be capable of balancing techno-economic motivations of stakeholders across the supply chain to participate in the recovery scheme, while being less disruptive to solar adoption. Under this scenario, a gradual change on regulatory requirements (e.g. recovery target and material recovery rate requirements) is introduced to allow a period of industry and market development.