Keywords
System dynamics modelling, agriculture, leverage points, climate change adaptation
Start Date
15-9-2020 3:40 PM
End Date
15-9-2020 4:00 PM
Abstract
In the area of Northeast Lower Saxony (NELS), Germany, climate model projections until the end of the century show rising temperatures throughout the year, slightly lower precipitation and higher evaporation rates during summer when water for agriculture is highly demanded. The changing climate conditions are likely to cause a substantial net water deficit. Responding to these challenges, we analyze a qualitative system dynamics model (QSDM) of the agricultural sector in NELS that is based on a participatory modeling approach. Stakeholders were directly involved in the model building process through individual interviews and by co-developing a common group model. We develop a novel approach to identify potential leverage points within the system using the classifications of Meadows (1999) and Abson et al. (2017). Therefor, we analyze parameters, feedback loops and typical system archetypes within the QSDM. Furthermore, we assess the potential of stakeholders to implement adaptation measures that correspond to the identified leverage points on different time scales. Agriculture in NELS is strongly dependent on irrigation as water demanding crops with a high economic value are cultivated. As a consequence of climate change, irrigation demand in the region is expected to increase to ensure economic yield production. To effectively cope with these challenges we propose to rely on three major pathways: 1) implement measures to increase water retention in the region, 2) use water more efficiently and 3) decrease the water demand. Decision makers are demanded to give financial incentives supporting the implementation of these measures. Farmers are requested to apply water efficient irrigation management and technology and to adapt crop cultivation. Increasing societal awareness to climate change related water shortages has the potential to direct the system towards more sustainable water use and consumption patterns.
A leverage points analysis of a qualitative system dynamics model for climate change adaptation in agriculture
In the area of Northeast Lower Saxony (NELS), Germany, climate model projections until the end of the century show rising temperatures throughout the year, slightly lower precipitation and higher evaporation rates during summer when water for agriculture is highly demanded. The changing climate conditions are likely to cause a substantial net water deficit. Responding to these challenges, we analyze a qualitative system dynamics model (QSDM) of the agricultural sector in NELS that is based on a participatory modeling approach. Stakeholders were directly involved in the model building process through individual interviews and by co-developing a common group model. We develop a novel approach to identify potential leverage points within the system using the classifications of Meadows (1999) and Abson et al. (2017). Therefor, we analyze parameters, feedback loops and typical system archetypes within the QSDM. Furthermore, we assess the potential of stakeholders to implement adaptation measures that correspond to the identified leverage points on different time scales. Agriculture in NELS is strongly dependent on irrigation as water demanding crops with a high economic value are cultivated. As a consequence of climate change, irrigation demand in the region is expected to increase to ensure economic yield production. To effectively cope with these challenges we propose to rely on three major pathways: 1) implement measures to increase water retention in the region, 2) use water more efficiently and 3) decrease the water demand. Decision makers are demanded to give financial incentives supporting the implementation of these measures. Farmers are requested to apply water efficient irrigation management and technology and to adapt crop cultivation. Increasing societal awareness to climate change related water shortages has the potential to direct the system towards more sustainable water use and consumption patterns.
Stream and Session
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