SILVIO - Analyzing social vulnerability under the influence of local climate change

This paper presents the methodology SILVIO (Social Vulnerability Order Methodology), a method for the analysis of social vulnerability. Local knowledge is used to build an index of social vulnerability from demographic, economic and social variables (Social Vulnerability Index - SVI). Social vulnerability is understood here as a multitude of relationships between society and the environment that can impact significantly on the livelihood of residents in a specific geographical area. SILVIO consists of a correlation analysis between the SVI and two selected local climate variables, temperature and precipitation (Local Climate Variables - LCV). The variables of both, the SVI and the LCV, were selected and evaluated by residents from the research area and local experts. The application of SILVIO is undertaken for the example of a demarcated study area of the Huaraz department in the Peruvian Andes. It includes data for mining, tourism, agriculture, migration, illiteracy and health for the department Huaraz from 2005 to 2012. SILVIO implies procedures for the aggregation of variables, the weighting of estimations involving local knowledge and the correlation of process data for the structuring of an indicator of social vulnerability (SVI). The behavior of the SVI is analyzed in the context of changing local climate conditions (LCV). For comparison purposes the SVI was recalculated in 2017 based on the weighting of the same variables by international experts working on reducing social vulnerability in Peru. The aim was to compare the perspectives of two different groups of actors with regard to the research area. This methodology is a contribution to the field of combining social and climate data by local knowledge aggregation.