Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy system models. Knowledge integration in different methodological designs

Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy system models serves to integrate assumptions on possible alternative future societal contexts into energy systems analysis. This endeavor requires integrating knowledge from different disciplines like social and political sciences, the humanities, economics, engineering and natural sciences. In this presentation, we report on our experiences with a new approach linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy system modelling and on our analysis of its effects on interdisciplinary knowledge integration. This new approach namely is the context scenario approach and is based on Cross-Impact Balance analysis (CIB). We carried out a cross-case analysis comparing three projects applying this approach to construct qualitative scenarios and link them with different quantitative energy system models. Differentiating between three forms of knowledge integration (compiling, combining and synthesizing) is the basic conceptual contribution of the analysis. We identify differences in the linking design (CIB as a provider and as equal partner for the energy system model) and in the form of linking (on the scenario level or on the model level). Important results of our work are that i) CIB itself, ii) forms of researcher interaction and iii) the linking design and interplay of different methods seem to have justifiable effects on the form of knowledge integration.