Keywords
Food-Energy-Water Nexus; arid lands; agriculture, science and policy; decision support
Start Date
27-6-2018 10:40 AM
End Date
27-6-2018 12:00 PM
Abstract
Semi-arid dryland regions account for 40% of world agricultural areas. Many of these areas are facing difficult circumstances. The Ogallala aquifer in western Kansas is one example, with problems that are typical and data that is exceptional. Past agricultural and hydrologic data document how irrigation in western Kansas has produced a multi-billion-dollar agricultural economy that is now threatened by pumping-induced declines in groundwater levels. Reduced pumping could mitigate the threat and preserve much of Kansas’ agricultural economy in the long term (albeit at a reduced level). A primary disincentive for reducing pumping is the immediate economic impact of diminished irrigation. A proposed state water-energy tradeoff program could reduce groundwater use while maintaining, and perhaps increasing, economic benefits. This program would allow development of the region’s rich wind and solar energy resources in a way that focuses on local economic benefits, in exchange for water-right concessions from affected stakeholders. In considering this alternative, citizens need to address a key question, “What could this mean for me?” Answers require knowledge of interdependence between agriculture, energy, water, economics, droughts, and associated uncertainties, knowledge that is available at regional universities. This talk presents a joint University of Kansas – Kansas State University effort to address the scientific challenges and develop a quantitative decision support tool that accounts for uncertainty. Preliminary discussions with farmers suggest substantial interest in more locally beneficial energy production, and less interest in reduced water rights.
Scientific Evaluations for Creative Solutions: The case of western Kansas Agriculture and a Proposed Water-Energy Trade
Semi-arid dryland regions account for 40% of world agricultural areas. Many of these areas are facing difficult circumstances. The Ogallala aquifer in western Kansas is one example, with problems that are typical and data that is exceptional. Past agricultural and hydrologic data document how irrigation in western Kansas has produced a multi-billion-dollar agricultural economy that is now threatened by pumping-induced declines in groundwater levels. Reduced pumping could mitigate the threat and preserve much of Kansas’ agricultural economy in the long term (albeit at a reduced level). A primary disincentive for reducing pumping is the immediate economic impact of diminished irrigation. A proposed state water-energy tradeoff program could reduce groundwater use while maintaining, and perhaps increasing, economic benefits. This program would allow development of the region’s rich wind and solar energy resources in a way that focuses on local economic benefits, in exchange for water-right concessions from affected stakeholders. In considering this alternative, citizens need to address a key question, “What could this mean for me?” Answers require knowledge of interdependence between agriculture, energy, water, economics, droughts, and associated uncertainties, knowledge that is available at regional universities. This talk presents a joint University of Kansas – Kansas State University effort to address the scientific challenges and develop a quantitative decision support tool that accounts for uncertainty. Preliminary discussions with farmers suggest substantial interest in more locally beneficial energy production, and less interest in reduced water rights.
Stream and Session
Stream F: System Identification Approaches for Complex Environmental Systems
F3: Modelling and Decision Making Under Uncertainty