Keywords
Multi-sector participatory planning, Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Robust Many Objective Optimization
Start Date
26-6-2018 9:00 AM
End Date
26-6-2018 10:20 AM
Abstract
In response to increasing climate, demand, and institutional changes water resource system planners from multiple sectors increasingly seek to identify robust designs (i.e. portfolios of supply infrastructure and demand management options) that acceptably balance benefits and costs between sectors. Increasingly planning is performed using Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMU) methods that link resource system simulation with heuristic search algorithms to identify efficient and robust development alternatives. DMU methods typically begin by identifying system performance metrics, the exogenous uncertainties to which the system is vulnerable, the possible interventions to improve performance and use a simulation model to quantify system performance under future states and with different interventions. Including stakeholders from many water using sectors significantly increases the complexity of the planning problem as this introduces many metrics of performance. We present a multi-sector water resource system planning study of the four water utilities of Eastern England considering conditions estimated for the 2060s for the public water supply, agriculture, environment and energy sectors. We describe the benefits and challenges faced during the implementation of a DMU planning effort and the tools used to facilitate stakeholder participation. Challenges included the need to aggregate many stakeholder metrics into a limited number of objectives and analysing the Pareto-approximate alternative system designs considering multiple tracked metrics. Through the use of web-based interactive plots stakeholders were able to efficiently filter through the Pareto-approximate solutions to learn about and select preferred infrastructure and demand management portfolios.
Participatory multi-sector regional water resource system planning using many-objective robust optimization in East England
In response to increasing climate, demand, and institutional changes water resource system planners from multiple sectors increasingly seek to identify robust designs (i.e. portfolios of supply infrastructure and demand management options) that acceptably balance benefits and costs between sectors. Increasingly planning is performed using Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMU) methods that link resource system simulation with heuristic search algorithms to identify efficient and robust development alternatives. DMU methods typically begin by identifying system performance metrics, the exogenous uncertainties to which the system is vulnerable, the possible interventions to improve performance and use a simulation model to quantify system performance under future states and with different interventions. Including stakeholders from many water using sectors significantly increases the complexity of the planning problem as this introduces many metrics of performance. We present a multi-sector water resource system planning study of the four water utilities of Eastern England considering conditions estimated for the 2060s for the public water supply, agriculture, environment and energy sectors. We describe the benefits and challenges faced during the implementation of a DMU planning effort and the tools used to facilitate stakeholder participation. Challenges included the need to aggregate many stakeholder metrics into a limited number of objectives and analysing the Pareto-approximate alternative system designs considering multiple tracked metrics. Through the use of web-based interactive plots stakeholders were able to efficiently filter through the Pareto-approximate solutions to learn about and select preferred infrastructure and demand management portfolios.
Stream and Session
C5: Participatory Modelling 2.0: Interfaces, Tools, Methods and Approaches for Linking Stakeholders Decisions, and Environmental Modelling