Keywords
Ambiguity analysis, Agent Based Modelling, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Flood Risk management
Start Date
27-6-2018 9:00 AM
End Date
27-6-2018 10:20 AM
Abstract
Evidence demonstrate that the effectiveness of flood risk management measures depends on human decisions, actions and interactions. Action choices are not neutral, but commensurate with the perspectives and frames held by the actors making the decisions.The problem is that when these frames do not overlap or are incompatible, they potentially lead to a situation of conflict, hampering the effectiveness of risk management measures. In this work, we argue that making the decision actors aware of the existence of ambiguous problem framings and of the impacts of ambiguity on the measures’ effectiveness is the key to deal with conflicts in risk management. To this aim, a multi-step methodology based on the integration between Problem Structuring Methods – and specifically Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) – and Agent-Based Modelling has been developed and experimentally tested in the Glinščica river basin (Slovenia). FCM were used to elicit individual risk perception and to structure the decision model for each decision actor. The ABM was implemented to simulate the interactions among the different actors and between them and the physical system. The hybrid model allowed to capture both the dynamic evolution of the interactions among the actors during the different phases of the risk management process, and to simulate different management scenarios accounting for the actors’ reactions. This work describes the implementation of the hybrid model to support a group decision-making process aiming at improving the integration between grey and green solutions to reduce the flood risk in the Ljubljana urban area.
INTEGRATING PROBLEM STRUCTURING METHODS AND AGENT-BASED MODELLING TO DEAL WITH AMBIGUITY: THE CASE OF THE GLINŠČICA RIVER
Evidence demonstrate that the effectiveness of flood risk management measures depends on human decisions, actions and interactions. Action choices are not neutral, but commensurate with the perspectives and frames held by the actors making the decisions.The problem is that when these frames do not overlap or are incompatible, they potentially lead to a situation of conflict, hampering the effectiveness of risk management measures. In this work, we argue that making the decision actors aware of the existence of ambiguous problem framings and of the impacts of ambiguity on the measures’ effectiveness is the key to deal with conflicts in risk management. To this aim, a multi-step methodology based on the integration between Problem Structuring Methods – and specifically Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) – and Agent-Based Modelling has been developed and experimentally tested in the Glinščica river basin (Slovenia). FCM were used to elicit individual risk perception and to structure the decision model for each decision actor. The ABM was implemented to simulate the interactions among the different actors and between them and the physical system. The hybrid model allowed to capture both the dynamic evolution of the interactions among the actors during the different phases of the risk management process, and to simulate different management scenarios accounting for the actors’ reactions. This work describes the implementation of the hybrid model to support a group decision-making process aiming at improving the integration between grey and green solutions to reduce the flood risk in the Ljubljana urban area.
Stream and Session
Stream C1: Participatory Modelling, Ambiguity and the Challenges of Being Inclusive
Organizers: Marcela Brugnach, Raffaele Giordano