Keywords
water resources vulnerability; assessment; climate change; Haihe River Basin; improved set pair analysis.
Location
Session H2: Water Resources Management and Planning - Modeling and Software for Improving Dcisions and Engaging Stakeholders
Start Date
17-6-2014 2:00 PM
End Date
17-6-2014 3:20 PM
Abstract
Water resource system is a complex uncertain system under climate change. To assess the water resources vulnerability rationally, an improved set pair analysis (ISPA) model, is established, in which set pair analysis theory is introduced and the weights are determined by use of the maximum entropy principle and the improved analytic hierarchy process method. And the index systems and criteria of water resources vulnerability assessment are established in this study. Uncertainties are analyzed in the assessment of water resource vulnerability by use of the ISPA model. ISPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability of seven administrative divisions in the Haihe River Basin under four kinds of future climate scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of water resource vulnerability is calculated by connection numbers in the ISPA model. Results show that ISPA model can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain knowledge, subjective and objective information compared with fuzzy assessment model and artificial neural network model. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management in Haihe River Basin.
Included in
Civil Engineering Commons, Data Storage Systems Commons, Environmental Engineering Commons, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons
Comprehensive Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on ISPA Model under Climate Change in Haihe River Basin
Session H2: Water Resources Management and Planning - Modeling and Software for Improving Dcisions and Engaging Stakeholders
Water resource system is a complex uncertain system under climate change. To assess the water resources vulnerability rationally, an improved set pair analysis (ISPA) model, is established, in which set pair analysis theory is introduced and the weights are determined by use of the maximum entropy principle and the improved analytic hierarchy process method. And the index systems and criteria of water resources vulnerability assessment are established in this study. Uncertainties are analyzed in the assessment of water resource vulnerability by use of the ISPA model. ISPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability of seven administrative divisions in the Haihe River Basin under four kinds of future climate scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of water resource vulnerability is calculated by connection numbers in the ISPA model. Results show that ISPA model can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain knowledge, subjective and objective information compared with fuzzy assessment model and artificial neural network model. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management in Haihe River Basin.
