A model component for simulating CO2 emissions growth

Session E1: Data Acquisition, Management and Processing for Sustainability Appraisal

Development of comprehensive Earth System models requires a variety of model components related to human feedbacks. Among them are the model components relating energy use to climate change and resource availability. Simulations of the changes in usage of various fuels over the next 25 years are essential for predicting the pathways of CO2 emission reduction needed for climate change mitigation, and considered as a challenging aspect of Earth system modelling (Erickson et al, 2009). Here I present a model component for simulating CO2 emission growth that takes into account the effect of non-renewable resource availability on the rate of consumption and the fact that estimates of available stocks of oil, gas, and coal are changing due to progress in extraction technologies. This model component and numerical tools for fitting model coefficients and model validation were developed using programming language R, and open-source language which is supported by some cloud computing s