Qualitative Reasoning Models to Summarize and Compare Metapopulation Theories

Session C2: Accounting for Uncertainty in Decision Support by Treating Model Assumptions as Scenarios

A better understanding of population dynamics is needed in the face of accelerating changes and modifications of natural landscapes. Qualitative Reasoning based models have been considered as a tool for integration and exploration of conceptual knowledge in ecological systems and population dynamics. The objective of the present work is to develop a set of qualitative models in order to capture, formalize, summarize, and compare knowledge about different approaches to metapopulation theory. Three types of approaches were modelled: 1) the classical concepts developed by Levins; 2) Pulliam's view on source and sink populations; and 3) an integrated model of conservation, based on Hanski's ideas. The models proved to be effective to summarize the central aspects of metapopulation theory and useful for comparing hypotheses and assumptions involved in the three approaches. The results show that qualitative models are a valuable tool for exploring theories and concepts and may provide a better understanding of the mechanisms involved in specific metapopulation behaviours. This way, these models may be useful for the design of biodiversity conservation policies, taking into account relevant aspects of metapopulation theories.