Spatial-dynamic visualization of long-term scenarios for demographic, social-economic and environmental change in Flanders

Spatial-dynamic visualization of long-term scenarios for demographic, social-economic and environmental change in Flanders

Land-use change in Flanders is characterized by a rapidly growing proportion of the hard surfaced area with on-going ribbon development and an increasing pressure on the remaining open space. The Spatially-Dynamic Land-Use Model for Flanders or RuimteModel Vlaanderen has been developed for the Flemish Ministry of the Environment and the Flemish Ministry of Spatial Planning and Housing to examine the underlying causes of spatial transformations at different scale levels. The model uses a constrained cellular automata approach, incorporating 35 residential, economic and natural land uses to describe annual land-use change in Flanders for the period 2010-2050. In a scenario exercise developed to support the formulation of the Spatial Policy Plan Flanders, the four scenarios developed as part of the Dutch WLO study for the Netherlands (www.welvaartenleefomgeving.nl) are applied to Flanders in an exercise involving stakeholders consultation, qualification and quantification. The integral consequences of four worldviews representing different demographic, social-economic and environmental developments in the world, Europe and Flanders are simulated with respect to the detailed spatial implications during the period 2010-2050. The presentation will focus on the steps taken to implement the scenarios into the RuimteModel and the qualitative evaluation of the model outcomes for the different scenarios.