Keywords
thermal time, maize earliness, sowing, harvesting, decision modelling
Start Date
1-7-2012 12:00 AM
Abstract
To sustain food production in the future, the agricultural sector mustadapt to changing climate conditions through agronomic means. In the Midi-Pyrénées (south-western France), maize is the main irrigated crop, and increasingpressure on water resources questions the appropriateness of this crop in theregion. In this study, we evaluated the impact of temperature and precipitationchanges on the sowing and harvesting period of maize and consequently on thesuitability of cultivar earliness to this sowing-harvest window in the future. We rantwo models with climate-change scenarios. The first model calculates the dayssuitable for sowing maize, and the second calculates the days suitable forharvesting. We ran these models with simulated weather data series covering thereference period (1971-2000) and two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100)for the study area. Further, we calculated climatic and agronomic indices tounderstand the changes in maize sowing days, the maize growing period andsuitable earliness choice due to climate change for the two future periods,compared to the reference period. The results showed an increase in thermal timeand decrease in rainfall in the future that will influence maize earliness choice andgrowing period. The trade-off between farmers’ maize earliness choices andsuitable maize growing periods will increase in the future. Late-earliness maizecultivars can be cultivated in the future; however, more detailed analysis is neededon irrigation requirements for the changes in cultivar earliness, maize growingperiod and shift in maize growth stages to cope with climate change.
Will climate change impact farmers’ maize earliness choice? A modeling approach applied to south-western France
To sustain food production in the future, the agricultural sector mustadapt to changing climate conditions through agronomic means. In the Midi-Pyrénées (south-western France), maize is the main irrigated crop, and increasingpressure on water resources questions the appropriateness of this crop in theregion. In this study, we evaluated the impact of temperature and precipitationchanges on the sowing and harvesting period of maize and consequently on thesuitability of cultivar earliness to this sowing-harvest window in the future. We rantwo models with climate-change scenarios. The first model calculates the dayssuitable for sowing maize, and the second calculates the days suitable forharvesting. We ran these models with simulated weather data series covering thereference period (1971-2000) and two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100)for the study area. Further, we calculated climatic and agronomic indices tounderstand the changes in maize sowing days, the maize growing period andsuitable earliness choice due to climate change for the two future periods,compared to the reference period. The results showed an increase in thermal timeand decrease in rainfall in the future that will influence maize earliness choice andgrowing period. The trade-off between farmers’ maize earliness choices andsuitable maize growing periods will increase in the future. Late-earliness maizecultivars can be cultivated in the future; however, more detailed analysis is neededon irrigation requirements for the changes in cultivar earliness, maize growingperiod and shift in maize growth stages to cope with climate change.
