Systems Dynamics Approach to Reducing Carbon Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation at Provincial Level

Forest and land use change contribute 18% of greenhouse gas emissions, whichcause global warming. The Conference of Parties (COP) 16 in Mexico increased politicalcommitment to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation and to enhance carbonstock (REDD+). We believe this support will continue at COP 18 in Doha, Qatar. However,various actors including local communities may or may not support REDD+ depending on,among others, their perceived impacts. To explore this situation, we have developed asystems dynamics model This model comprises sectors of landscape, population, locallivelihoods, environmental services and government incomes. The model simulateslandscape and carbon dynamics and their impacts. We compare “business as usual” withvarious REDD+ scenarios. The simulation results are examined by criteria of effectiveness incarbon emission reduction, cost efficiency, equity among involved stakeholders and cobenefitof other activities. This study took Jambi Province of Indonesia as a case study. Wefound REDD+ to be effective in reducing carbon emissions; forest concessions are the mostefficient places for running REDD+ projects and mining the most inefficient.