Development of an Activity-based Cellular Automata Land-use Model: the case of Flanders, Belgium

Cellular automata (CA) models are increasingly applied for simulating land-use change in urban areas. However, in areas with strongly mixed land uses, like Flanders, Belgium, different types and intensities of human activity occur within a single dominant land use. This is in conflict with the discrete and dominant land-use states applied in CA. The direct modelling of the intensity of activities (population density and employment in different sectors) within a CA grid environment is an interesting alternative to model mixed and multifunctional land use. In this research, an activity-based cellular automata (ACA) model, developed by White et al. [2012] will be further enhanced, applied and calibrated for Flanders. Its resolution will be increased to 1 ha to effectively address environmental, socio-economic and spatial planning problems. It should be able to cope with the complex multi-nodal structure and messy urbanised morphology of Flanders, typified as it is by multifunctional land use and diffuse, fragmented urban development strung out along roads. This paper shows the results of an initial application of the model of White et al. to a sub-region of Flanders and discusses how the model should be further developed in the future. The effect of diseconomies of agglomeration, accounting for high costs and congestion in dense urban areas, was investigated, as well as the capacity of the ACA to allocate both activity-based land uses and non-activity based land uses (e.g. protected nature).