Keywords
urban, agent-based modelling, shrinkage, empirical study
Start Date
1-7-2012 12:00 AM
Abstract
Shrinking population numbers are a challenge for planning future investments into urban built structures: Declining population numbers can lead to decreasing real estate prices and can even induce vacancies, thus creating uncertainty for returns of investments into the housing stock and public infrastructure. This process is even more critical for municipalities with small budgets. Understanding and estimating future residential mobility is therefore essential for urban development in such regions. The paper provides an overview over a project that investigates the effects of population shrinkage on investments in energy-efficient heating systems and insulation of residential buildings. The paper focuses on an agent-based model for residential mobility that allows for simulating future patterns of population distribution. The agents in the model represent domestic households of different types that decide upon re-locating within the city, to leave the city or to move into the city. The agents consider their housing preferences, the availability of infrastructure as well as the behaviour of other agents in their decision. The decision algorithm will integrate empirical data on residential mobility that is being surveyed especially for this project. This empirical study follows a two-step approach of (a) qualitative, in depth interviews and (b) a quantitative, written questionnaire. The paper describes both the concept of the agent-based model as well as first empirical results. This work is accompanied by a dialogue with policy makers and residential building cooperatives about future investments into energy-efficient infrastructure in the city of Delitzsch in Saxony, Germany.
Modelling residential mobility in a shrinking medium-sized town: Model concept and first empirical results for Delitzsch, Germany
Shrinking population numbers are a challenge for planning future investments into urban built structures: Declining population numbers can lead to decreasing real estate prices and can even induce vacancies, thus creating uncertainty for returns of investments into the housing stock and public infrastructure. This process is even more critical for municipalities with small budgets. Understanding and estimating future residential mobility is therefore essential for urban development in such regions. The paper provides an overview over a project that investigates the effects of population shrinkage on investments in energy-efficient heating systems and insulation of residential buildings. The paper focuses on an agent-based model for residential mobility that allows for simulating future patterns of population distribution. The agents in the model represent domestic households of different types that decide upon re-locating within the city, to leave the city or to move into the city. The agents consider their housing preferences, the availability of infrastructure as well as the behaviour of other agents in their decision. The decision algorithm will integrate empirical data on residential mobility that is being surveyed especially for this project. This empirical study follows a two-step approach of (a) qualitative, in depth interviews and (b) a quantitative, written questionnaire. The paper describes both the concept of the agent-based model as well as first empirical results. This work is accompanied by a dialogue with policy makers and residential building cooperatives about future investments into energy-efficient infrastructure in the city of Delitzsch in Saxony, Germany.
