Keywords
irwm, acceptance estimate, water balance, crop change, china
Start Date
1-7-2012 12:00 AM
Abstract
In Integrated Water Resources Management, a conjunctive consideration of hydrological processes and human influences is essential. Even though a large variety of hydrological models is available for this purpose; the application of these models is often hampered by insufficient data and information. In particular human impacts can not be described in detail. To cope with these problems a metadata modelling approach in form of a dynamic water balance was used, incorporating model-based analyses of the hydrological conditions and human impacts based on socio-economic statistics as well as on detailed studies of water utilisation in agriculture, industries and settlements. Interlinks of the human and the natural systems were categorised by water fluxes. These fluxes are modified within the planning process with the aim of attaining a sustainable groundwater balance. To reach this goal a large number of combined strategies can be applied and evaluated on basic criteria that define cost efficiency, e.g. groundwater recharge versus costs. Despite the sparseness of data, these two basic criteria can be specified by technological analyses. However, implementation of the strategies also depends on socio-economic uncertainties. It is suggested to summarise these criteria in an “acceptance estimate”. This degree depends on known unknowns, e.g. of developments of the market, but also on human factors e.g. the unexpected outcome of participative processes. Within the planning process a stochastic generator for combinations of planning strategies is used. It derives combined strategies, which can be assessed in their hydrological effectiveness with the dynamic water balance model. The large numbers of possible strategies are ordered by their acceptance estimates, which are specified in a fuzzy based approach. This methodology was applied for ground-water management planning in a coastal region of China, which is strongly affected by saltwater intrusion.
Dealing with insufficient data: metadata modelling and stochastic exploration of the decision space
In Integrated Water Resources Management, a conjunctive consideration of hydrological processes and human influences is essential. Even though a large variety of hydrological models is available for this purpose; the application of these models is often hampered by insufficient data and information. In particular human impacts can not be described in detail. To cope with these problems a metadata modelling approach in form of a dynamic water balance was used, incorporating model-based analyses of the hydrological conditions and human impacts based on socio-economic statistics as well as on detailed studies of water utilisation in agriculture, industries and settlements. Interlinks of the human and the natural systems were categorised by water fluxes. These fluxes are modified within the planning process with the aim of attaining a sustainable groundwater balance. To reach this goal a large number of combined strategies can be applied and evaluated on basic criteria that define cost efficiency, e.g. groundwater recharge versus costs. Despite the sparseness of data, these two basic criteria can be specified by technological analyses. However, implementation of the strategies also depends on socio-economic uncertainties. It is suggested to summarise these criteria in an “acceptance estimate”. This degree depends on known unknowns, e.g. of developments of the market, but also on human factors e.g. the unexpected outcome of participative processes. Within the planning process a stochastic generator for combinations of planning strategies is used. It derives combined strategies, which can be assessed in their hydrological effectiveness with the dynamic water balance model. The large numbers of possible strategies are ordered by their acceptance estimates, which are specified in a fuzzy based approach. This methodology was applied for ground-water management planning in a coastal region of China, which is strongly affected by saltwater intrusion.
