Keywords
climate change, general circulation model, impact on water resources, downscaling, jucar river basin
Start Date
1-7-2012 12:00 AM
Abstract
The Spanish Agency of Metereology (AEMET) released in 2008 a set ofdownscaled climate change scenarios over Spain that are the reference to betaken by other public bodies implicated in the development of adaptationstrategies. In this paper AEMET scenarios are analysed for the control period(1960-1990), for the period 2010-2040, and their impact on water resources isassessed by means of a rainfall-runoff model. It is found that over the controlperiod, where the simulated scenarios can be compared against historical records,these scenarios honour temperature records. However, there are significantdifferences for rainfall. AEMET scenarios yield average precipitations that arelower (by 20%) than historical records. This fact underlines both the need ofimproving the calibration of General Circulation Models and the downscalingprocedures for regional studies. For the period 2010-2040 the different scenariosshow a great dispersion in the anomalies, mainly in precipitation amounts and itsspatial variability, with an average precipitation anomaly of - 4% and a temperatureanomaly of +1.02 ºC. Thus, the impact on water resources shows a great degreeof dispersion, ranging from -13.45 to 18.1% with a mean value of -2.13%. Theseresults revel the potential impacts of climate change on water resources for thenext decades, with estimations to be accounted by water agencies, and the needto improve the current models calibration and downscaling methodologies toreduce the uncertainty of impact predictions.
Regional impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: the Jucar Basin, Spain
The Spanish Agency of Metereology (AEMET) released in 2008 a set ofdownscaled climate change scenarios over Spain that are the reference to betaken by other public bodies implicated in the development of adaptationstrategies. In this paper AEMET scenarios are analysed for the control period(1960-1990), for the period 2010-2040, and their impact on water resources isassessed by means of a rainfall-runoff model. It is found that over the controlperiod, where the simulated scenarios can be compared against historical records,these scenarios honour temperature records. However, there are significantdifferences for rainfall. AEMET scenarios yield average precipitations that arelower (by 20%) than historical records. This fact underlines both the need ofimproving the calibration of General Circulation Models and the downscalingprocedures for regional studies. For the period 2010-2040 the different scenariosshow a great dispersion in the anomalies, mainly in precipitation amounts and itsspatial variability, with an average precipitation anomaly of - 4% and a temperatureanomaly of +1.02 ºC. Thus, the impact on water resources shows a great degreeof dispersion, ranging from -13.45 to 18.1% with a mean value of -2.13%. Theseresults revel the potential impacts of climate change on water resources for thenext decades, with estimations to be accounted by water agencies, and the needto improve the current models calibration and downscaling methodologies toreduce the uncertainty of impact predictions.
