Keywords
agent-based modelling, climate change impact, repast, simulation, water demand
Start Date
1-7-2010 12:00 AM
Abstract
Deep Creek is an important tributary of the Okanagan River system in Southern British Columbia. The creek drains a watershed with sediments deposited by multiple glacial events, resulting in a complex pattern of surface and groundwater connections throughout the basin. Further, the basin is experiencing changes in agricultural enterprises as well as population growth, and may be heavily impacted by climate change. The MIKE SHE integrated hydrological modeling system is being used to develop a model of the basin hydrology. The watershed is relatively small – with only a couple of hundred agricultural water users – lending itself to a high resolution modeling project. We are at the initial stages of developing an Agent Based model to forecast land use change in the basin. The MIKE SHE model will be used to calibrate the hydrologic features of our model, and the water use predictions of our model will serve as inputs into the MIKE SHE model, as an iterative process to forecast the impacts of climate change in the basin. Conventional climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature will be considered, as well as various changes in input and output prices which may occur. The latter have been little studied, although there is general agreement that agricultural production will shift to more northerly regions, and that this will be driven by price changes as well as new opportunities. After considering various approaches and software options, we decided that REPAST provides the power and flexibility to meet our objectives. We are presently at the preliminary stages. This paper outlines the study location and preliminary conceptual design of the model.
Development of an Agent Based Coupled Economic and Hydrological Model of the Deep Creek Watershed in British Columbia, Canada.
Deep Creek is an important tributary of the Okanagan River system in Southern British Columbia. The creek drains a watershed with sediments deposited by multiple glacial events, resulting in a complex pattern of surface and groundwater connections throughout the basin. Further, the basin is experiencing changes in agricultural enterprises as well as population growth, and may be heavily impacted by climate change. The MIKE SHE integrated hydrological modeling system is being used to develop a model of the basin hydrology. The watershed is relatively small – with only a couple of hundred agricultural water users – lending itself to a high resolution modeling project. We are at the initial stages of developing an Agent Based model to forecast land use change in the basin. The MIKE SHE model will be used to calibrate the hydrologic features of our model, and the water use predictions of our model will serve as inputs into the MIKE SHE model, as an iterative process to forecast the impacts of climate change in the basin. Conventional climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature will be considered, as well as various changes in input and output prices which may occur. The latter have been little studied, although there is general agreement that agricultural production will shift to more northerly regions, and that this will be driven by price changes as well as new opportunities. After considering various approaches and software options, we decided that REPAST provides the power and flexibility to meet our objectives. We are presently at the preliminary stages. This paper outlines the study location and preliminary conceptual design of the model.
