Keywords
land use modelling, wildfire, mongolia, modis burned area
Start Date
1-7-2010 12:00 AM
Abstract
Numerous approaches of modelling wildfires have been published covering the regime itself, ignition probabilities, spreading patterns, risks and impacts. However, there is less research linking these validated mature approaches to dynamics of the terrestrial environment. We contribute to filling this gap via integrating a newly developed wildfire module into a land-use model, enabling us to include wildfire-impacts in dynamic simulations of socio-environmental systems. In the forest steppe region of Northern Mongolia, wildfires are a major concern, threatening grassland and forest areas, which are already under pressure of droughts, heavy grazing, (illegal) logging and increasing firewood demand. We employ the generic land-use modelling framework SITE, that includes the ecosystem model DayCent and other components, to develop a wildfire submodule for simulating wildfire spread and intensity. Outputs are translated into net loss of biomass, changes in carbon and returns of nutrients. Burning and carbon cycling affect biomass and thus fuel load and wildfire risk in subsequent years. Our study presents first results of a coupled land-use-wildfire modelling approach aiming at (i) increasing the model accuracy in land allocation and potential land usability, and (ii) to a more adequate impact analysis based on potentially fire-affected land.
Linking wildfire behaviour and land-use modelling in Northern Mongolia
Numerous approaches of modelling wildfires have been published covering the regime itself, ignition probabilities, spreading patterns, risks and impacts. However, there is less research linking these validated mature approaches to dynamics of the terrestrial environment. We contribute to filling this gap via integrating a newly developed wildfire module into a land-use model, enabling us to include wildfire-impacts in dynamic simulations of socio-environmental systems. In the forest steppe region of Northern Mongolia, wildfires are a major concern, threatening grassland and forest areas, which are already under pressure of droughts, heavy grazing, (illegal) logging and increasing firewood demand. We employ the generic land-use modelling framework SITE, that includes the ecosystem model DayCent and other components, to develop a wildfire submodule for simulating wildfire spread and intensity. Outputs are translated into net loss of biomass, changes in carbon and returns of nutrients. Burning and carbon cycling affect biomass and thus fuel load and wildfire risk in subsequent years. Our study presents first results of a coupled land-use-wildfire modelling approach aiming at (i) increasing the model accuracy in land allocation and potential land usability, and (ii) to a more adequate impact analysis based on potentially fire-affected land.
