Keywords
ecological economic modelling, land use change modelling, model integration, cellular automata, agent-based modelling, evolutionary approaches
Start Date
1-7-2010 12:00 AM
Abstract
Although in the past decades several attempts have been made to integrate economic models with land use change (LUC) models, none of them have been fully satisfactory. In this paper we analyse four different integrated models for policy support that include economic and LUC models. We describe several functional forms used to integrate LUC and economic models, highlighting the various strengths and weaknesses of each form, and in turn, suggesting possible pathways for improved integration. Analysing the concepts and underlying assumptions of both types of models show their vast difference. When integrating these models, underlying assumptions and limitations of the existing individual models are passed on to the integrated model. A proper integration therefore requires a thorough understanding of the underlying theories of both types of models and a solution at this theoretical level. We argue that concepts of evolutionary economics and -spatially explicit- agent based modelling, where creation of ideas and learning are embodied into fully integrated LUC and economic models, provide some key mechanisms for bridging the described gap. These approaches are however very data demanding and have -at least at present- major limitations in performing a proper calibration and validation.
Towards the Integration of Economic and Land Use Change Models
Although in the past decades several attempts have been made to integrate economic models with land use change (LUC) models, none of them have been fully satisfactory. In this paper we analyse four different integrated models for policy support that include economic and LUC models. We describe several functional forms used to integrate LUC and economic models, highlighting the various strengths and weaknesses of each form, and in turn, suggesting possible pathways for improved integration. Analysing the concepts and underlying assumptions of both types of models show their vast difference. When integrating these models, underlying assumptions and limitations of the existing individual models are passed on to the integrated model. A proper integration therefore requires a thorough understanding of the underlying theories of both types of models and a solution at this theoretical level. We argue that concepts of evolutionary economics and -spatially explicit- agent based modelling, where creation of ideas and learning are embodied into fully integrated LUC and economic models, provide some key mechanisms for bridging the described gap. These approaches are however very data demanding and have -at least at present- major limitations in performing a proper calibration and validation.
