Keywords
scenario analysis, cumulative effects, regional planning
Start Date
1-7-2010 12:00 AM
Abstract
Planning for regional sustainability requires strategic understanding of ecological and socioeconomic trade-offs associated with alternative land use options. We discuss a scenario analysis being undertaken to assess trade-offs for a 93,000 km2 region in northeastern Alberta containing the world’s second largest oil deposit. Due to its immense economic and ecological value, the region presents both an opportunity and challenge for the objectives of sustainable prosperity and healthy ecosystems put forth by the Alberta government’s Land-Use Framework. ALCES® simulation and mapping software are being applied to inform government planners and stakeholders about possible future outcomes associated with land-use options. Two characteristics of the modelling process in particular have contributed to its success: the comprehensive and integrative nature of ALCES; and reliance on government and stakeholders for model inputs and scenario development. The scenario analysis provides a case study to discuss the technical aspects of ALCES and the Alberta Land-Use Framework’s approach of facilitating learning through iterative scenario analysis.
Informing Regional Planning in Alberta’s Oilsands Region with a Land-use Simulation Model
Planning for regional sustainability requires strategic understanding of ecological and socioeconomic trade-offs associated with alternative land use options. We discuss a scenario analysis being undertaken to assess trade-offs for a 93,000 km2 region in northeastern Alberta containing the world’s second largest oil deposit. Due to its immense economic and ecological value, the region presents both an opportunity and challenge for the objectives of sustainable prosperity and healthy ecosystems put forth by the Alberta government’s Land-Use Framework. ALCES® simulation and mapping software are being applied to inform government planners and stakeholders about possible future outcomes associated with land-use options. Two characteristics of the modelling process in particular have contributed to its success: the comprehensive and integrative nature of ALCES; and reliance on government and stakeholders for model inputs and scenario development. The scenario analysis provides a case study to discuss the technical aspects of ALCES and the Alberta Land-Use Framework’s approach of facilitating learning through iterative scenario analysis.
