Keywords
wind hazard, natural disasters, extreme value distributions, monte carlo simulation, high-resolution climate models
Start Date
1-7-2010 12:00 AM
Abstract
The Risk and Impact Analysis Group of Geoscience Australia has been developing models to assess the hazard and risk produced by a number of natural phenomena. This paper describes a model to assess severe wind hazard over a region rather than at a recording station. The model integrates three sub-models: a statistical model that calculates return periods for the event using extreme value distributions; a model to extract and process wind speeds from a high-resolution (regional) climate model; and a Monte Carlo simulation model to generate wind gust speeds from mean wind speeds. Large scale high resolution gridded data requires a fast, efficient way to calculate wind hazard. A computer-based algorithm to achieve this aim is presented in this paper. To illustrate the methodology, wind hazard calculation over the Australian island state of Tasmania will be presented.
Extreme value analysis for gridded data
The Risk and Impact Analysis Group of Geoscience Australia has been developing models to assess the hazard and risk produced by a number of natural phenomena. This paper describes a model to assess severe wind hazard over a region rather than at a recording station. The model integrates three sub-models: a statistical model that calculates return periods for the event using extreme value distributions; a model to extract and process wind speeds from a high-resolution (regional) climate model; and a Monte Carlo simulation model to generate wind gust speeds from mean wind speeds. Large scale high resolution gridded data requires a fast, efficient way to calculate wind hazard. A computer-based algorithm to achieve this aim is presented in this paper. To illustrate the methodology, wind hazard calculation over the Australian island state of Tasmania will be presented.
