Keywords
risk-based land management, modelling, system dynamics, cost-effectiveness
Start Date
1-7-2008 12:00 AM
Abstract
In Europe and world-wide, adequate water quality is one of the most eminent concerns for future generations. Diffuse pollution inputs such as agriculture, as well as local sources in terms of industrial, military and mining sites pose considerable stress on water quality. For the design of sustainable management strategies, decision makers need appropriate planning tools to assist them in the assessment, selection and optimisation of possible alternatives. Recent policies set a focus on the management of existing risks to human health and ecosystems within a tiered assessment and decision making approach giving increased emphasis to modelling. We propose a novel system dynamics modelling approach that quickly provides estimates of current and future risks originating from soil and groundwater contamination, as well as of the costs of possible risk reduction strategies. The use of analytical approaches for contaminant fate and transport modelling, as well as for risk assessment, enables a fast and effective “screening” method that is particularly qualified for large-scale applications. Results from a pilot case study in Germany illustrate the large potential of the proposed method for the preliminary assessment of management scenarios involving individual treatment technologies, as well as combinations of those.
A System Dynamics Model for the Assessment of Risks and Risk Mitigation Options at Catchment Scale
In Europe and world-wide, adequate water quality is one of the most eminent concerns for future generations. Diffuse pollution inputs such as agriculture, as well as local sources in terms of industrial, military and mining sites pose considerable stress on water quality. For the design of sustainable management strategies, decision makers need appropriate planning tools to assist them in the assessment, selection and optimisation of possible alternatives. Recent policies set a focus on the management of existing risks to human health and ecosystems within a tiered assessment and decision making approach giving increased emphasis to modelling. We propose a novel system dynamics modelling approach that quickly provides estimates of current and future risks originating from soil and groundwater contamination, as well as of the costs of possible risk reduction strategies. The use of analytical approaches for contaminant fate and transport modelling, as well as for risk assessment, enables a fast and effective “screening” method that is particularly qualified for large-scale applications. Results from a pilot case study in Germany illustrate the large potential of the proposed method for the preliminary assessment of management scenarios involving individual treatment technologies, as well as combinations of those.
