Ensemble modelling of runoff across southeast Australia and quantification of uncertainty

Reliable information on current and future water availability are required to properly manage and share limited water resources. This paper describes an ensemble modelling approach used to estimate runoff for 0.05o x 0.05o grid cells (~ 5 km x 5 km) across southeast Australia. There are about 250 ‘unimpaired’ streamflow gauging stations with more than 50 percent data from 1975 to 2006, and they cover less than 1 percent of the over one million square kilometres study region.