Keywords
carbon cycle, carbon accounting, nfcmars, uncertainty analysis, canada’s forests
Start Date
1-7-2006 12:00 AM
Abstract
Canada is developing the National Forest Carbon Monitoring Accounting and Reporting System(NFCMARS) to meet international reporting obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. The system integrates information about forest area,age and species composition, growth rates, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances in a modelingframework that simulates the forest carbon cycle at stand and landscape scales. The system reports, atregional and national scales, the emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in Canada’s managed forests.Approaches to quantify the uncertainties associated with these estimates are being developed. Thedifficulties associated with meaningfully quantifying uncertainty for national-scale estimates of greenhousegas emissions and removals from Canada's forests arise from the wide range of input data sources that arecombined in the analysis and the degree to which statistical uncertainties can be defined for these data. Theparameterization of ecological processes is typically based on studies that are localized and with known errorstructure. Uncertainties are introduced when scaling up or outside of the domain within which theseparameters were developed. Other input data - such as forest inventories compiled for operational andplanning purposes - cover larger spatial scales. Information characterizing the uncertainties associated withthese data, however, is often anecdotal or based on expert judgment. We present and discuss a frameworkthat we use to assess the appropriate spatial and temporal scales at which to evaluate the effect of specificsources of uncertainties on the overall estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and removals.
Quantifying Uncertainties Associated with Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals From Canada’s Managed Forests
Canada is developing the National Forest Carbon Monitoring Accounting and Reporting System(NFCMARS) to meet international reporting obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. The system integrates information about forest area,age and species composition, growth rates, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances in a modelingframework that simulates the forest carbon cycle at stand and landscape scales. The system reports, atregional and national scales, the emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in Canada’s managed forests.Approaches to quantify the uncertainties associated with these estimates are being developed. Thedifficulties associated with meaningfully quantifying uncertainty for national-scale estimates of greenhousegas emissions and removals from Canada's forests arise from the wide range of input data sources that arecombined in the analysis and the degree to which statistical uncertainties can be defined for these data. Theparameterization of ecological processes is typically based on studies that are localized and with known errorstructure. Uncertainties are introduced when scaling up or outside of the domain within which theseparameters were developed. Other input data - such as forest inventories compiled for operational andplanning purposes - cover larger spatial scales. Information characterizing the uncertainties associated withthese data, however, is often anecdotal or based on expert judgment. We present and discuss a frameworkthat we use to assess the appropriate spatial and temporal scales at which to evaluate the effect of specificsources of uncertainties on the overall estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and removals.
