Modelling Lava Flow to Assess Hazard on Mount Etna (Italy). From Geological Data to a Preliminary Hazard Map

In this paper we present a systematic approach to the development of the lava flow hazard map forthe Mount Etna, the most important active volcano in Europe. The basic idea is to determine the hazard zonesby simulating the lava flows originated from a number of sample points localized in regions at high densityof vents, called eruption zones. The key choice is the adoption of a probabilistic model for the simulation ofthe lava flow. In the paper we outline the characteristics of the model, called ELFM, and how it has beenvalidated. On the other side, for the determination of the eruption zones, which likely contain the points offuture lava flows emissions, we propose an approach based on data mining techniques.