Start Date
1-7-2004 12:00 AM
Abstract
An integrated population, economic, and water resource model was developed to address sustainable development questions for Botswana. Traditionally, water resources planning models have considered the implications of different assumptions of population and economic growth on the sustainability of existing water resources supply; however, this model extends that capability to consider feedbacks from one model component to another. The water model uses a physically based hydrologic rainfall-runoff model, with surface and groundwater components, to produce monthly runoff and groundwater recharge at the watershed scale. Surface runoff and recharge are the inflows into surface and groundwater water reservoirs. The demographic sub model is a standard multi-cohort model that forecasts the population by age, sex, rural, urban, education and hiv/aids status. The economic sub-model is a computable general equilibrium model with three sectors: agriculture, non-agricultural exports, and non tradables. The model runs an ensemble of scenarios, including climate change, HIV-AIDS, health, economic, and water conservation scenarios, whose output is probabilistic in nature.
Addressing Sustainability, HIV-AIDS, and Water Resource Questions in Botswana
An integrated population, economic, and water resource model was developed to address sustainable development questions for Botswana. Traditionally, water resources planning models have considered the implications of different assumptions of population and economic growth on the sustainability of existing water resources supply; however, this model extends that capability to consider feedbacks from one model component to another. The water model uses a physically based hydrologic rainfall-runoff model, with surface and groundwater components, to produce monthly runoff and groundwater recharge at the watershed scale. Surface runoff and recharge are the inflows into surface and groundwater water reservoirs. The demographic sub model is a standard multi-cohort model that forecasts the population by age, sex, rural, urban, education and hiv/aids status. The economic sub-model is a computable general equilibrium model with three sectors: agriculture, non-agricultural exports, and non tradables. The model runs an ensemble of scenarios, including climate change, HIV-AIDS, health, economic, and water conservation scenarios, whose output is probabilistic in nature.
