An Integrated Modelling Approach to Conduct Multifactorial Analyses on the Impacts of Climate Change on Whole-farm Systems.

Climate change impact studies on whole-farm systems require a holistic approach due to the complexities of biophysical processes, management and inter-relationships of land use within a single farm. This paper details the process of utilising a multiple-objective, strategic land use planning tool to conduct multi-factorial analyses on the impacts of climate change at the farm scale. Two example sites are given to illustrate the flexibility of the method: an upland mixed sheep and suckler cow farm in Scotland, with cold wet winters and cool moist summers; and a combined cropping and indoor reared beef farm in Italy, with cool moist winters and warm dry summers. The approach allows the additional risk that climate change may introduce to the farm system to be quantified. Model output facilitates the development of adaptation and amelioration strategies. This Integrated Assessment (AI) approach employs the Land Allocation Decision Support System (LADSS), a framework which permits a wide range of counter-factual assessments of financial, social and environmental impacts of changes to policy, management and biophysical conditions. The framework contains a Geographical Information System (GIS) and relational database linked with land use models, impact assessments and planning tools. Crop based land uses are represented by the CropSyst cropping systems model and livestock by a Livestock Production Model (LPM). The framework provides an opportunity to explore the linkages between sub-components of the farm system and demonstrates the diversity of possible climate change impacts. The paper indicates the importance of management decisions in determining amelioration of the impacts of climate change on the farm system. Farms constitute one of the fundamental units within the agri-ecosystem, hence it is important to understanding the impacts of change and the subsequent requirements for management adaptation. This understanding can then be used to better inform policy makers.