SIMULATING GLOBAL FEEDBACKS BETWEEN SEA LEVEL RISE, WATER FOR AGRICULTURE AND THE COMPLEX SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE IPCC SCENARIOS

The Global Unified Meta-model of the BiOsphere (GUMBO) was used to simulate how the socioeconomicconditions specified in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) influence vulnerability to climate change. Input parametersare the consumer preferences, investment strategies, natural resources management and technologicaldevelopment associated with the SRES scenarios. From this input the characteristic SRES driving forcespopulation growth, economic development and fossil fuel use were reproduced in GUMBO with thecorresponding climate scenarios (temperature change, sea level rise and rainfall patterns). This articleshows alternative pathways of development exist that yield the same SRES driving forces but that differsignificantly in their vulnerability to sea level rise and water availability. It concludes that an assessmentof the relative vulnerability of the SRES scenarios that takes into account the socio-economiccharacteristics of these scenarios, can challenge assessments based on climate change and the drivingforces only. The assessment of alternative complex socio-economic conditions is an important addition tounderstand our world s vulnerability to climate change. GUMBO offers a promising, flexible and fastenvironment for the assessment. The GUMBO model and documentation can be downloaded fromwww.uvm.edu/giee/GUMBO.