Underpredicting Learning after Initial Experience with a Product

Keywords

product adoption, skill acquisition, consumer confidence

Abstract

For products that require skills to use, such as computers, cell phones, and sports equipment, consumers’ purchase and usage decisions often depend on their prediction of the speed with which they will master the relevant skills. In this article, we identify a systematic pessimism in predictions of such skill learning occurring in the initial skill-acquisition phase of product use. After initially trying new products, people underpredict how quickly they will acquire the skills required for product use. Further, we find that this underprediction of learning is due to a failure to appreciate how rapidly task experience leads to a shift from system 2 to system 1 processing. In six experiments, we document the effect, examine its generality across several tasks, and demonstrate its consequences for product devaluation and abandonment. We conclude with a discussion of implications for customer service, promotions, and the design of new products.

Original Publication Citation

Billeter, Darron, Ajay Kalra and George Loewenstein (2011) “Underpredicting Learning after Initial Experience With a Product,” Journal of Consumer Research, 37(5) pg. 723-36.

Document Type

Peer-Reviewed Article

Publication Date

2011

Publisher

Journal of Consumer Research

Language

English

College

Marriott School of Business

Department

Marketing

University Standing at Time of Publication

Associate Professor

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