Abstract

Samples from 13 different sites along the south coast of West Java yield 7 candidate paleo-tsunami sands, which may represent 4 different paleo-tsunami events. Ages obtained from one deposit may document a tsunami and coastal subsidence from an earthquake in 1,053 AD. The tsunami deposit from this event is preserved in an uplifted marine terrace exposed at Panto Cape, Banten Province. We speculated that the terrace has been uplifted about 4.6 m to the present height of 2 m above sea level, since the 1053 AD event at a rate of 4.8 mm/a. This uplift is strong evidence that strain is accumulating at the Java Trench and enough has already accumulated to generate a megathrust earthquake event.Numerical models using ComMIT of possible megathrust earthquake scenarios were constructed using the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, 30-m fault slip, and the 2011 Japan earthquake as proxies. These three scenarios yield earthquakes of Mw 9.3, 9.5 and 8.9, respectively. The worst case scenario is used to estimate the extent of tsunami inundation of the SW coast of Java, which totals 643 km2. The total number of people who inhabit the inundation area is around 451,000. Some coastal configurations cause a no escape situation where the modeled tsunami arrives in less than 20 minutes, which is not enough time for those near the coast to escape far enough inland or to a sufficient elevation to avoid the tsunami. These areas include the coastlines of Sukabumi, Cianjur and west Garut Regencies and the Pameungpeuk area.

Degree

College and Department

Physical and Mathematical Sciences; Geological Sciences

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