Abstract

Roadway safety continues to be a priority for the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) Traffic and Safety Division. UDOT has participated in and managed several research projects in recent years to determine the roadway segments of highest safety concern in the state. This research has provided UDOT with more tools to assist in safety project prioritization. Researchers in Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Brigham Young University (BYU) have worked with UDOT and the Statistics Department at BYU to create two network screening statistical tools called the Utah Crash Prediction Model (UCPM) and the Utah Crash Severity Model (UCSM) to analyze roadway segment safety. The Roadway Safety Analysis Methodology (RSAM) was developed as a process to run these segment models. Because a significant portion of crashes occur at intersections, there is a need to analyze roadway safety specifically at intersections. This research focuses on the development of the Utah Intersection Crash Prediction Model (UICPM) and the Intersection Safety Analysis Methodology (ISAM). The UICPM is a Bayesian generalized linear model that determines crash distributions for each intersection based on roadway characteristics and historical crash data. The observed number of crashes at each intersection is compared with the crash distribution, and a percentile value is calculated as the probability that the number of crashes occurring at an intersection in a particular year is less than or equal to the average annual number of crashes. A high percentile value indicates that more crashes were observed than expected and the intersection is a hot spot and should be considered for safety improvements. All intersections are ranked at the state, UDOT Region, and county levels based on the percentile value, the higher ranks having higher percentile values. The ISAM is the three-step process that was developed to execute the UICPM. The first step is to prepare the model input by formatting and combining the roadway characteristics and crash data files. Crashes are assigned to intersections if they fall with the functional area of an intersection. Due to data limitations, the ISAM is currently being used only for intersections of at least two state routes. It is anticipated that, as more data are made available, the ISAM will function properly for intersections of non-state routes as well. The second step is to execute the UICPM using the R GUI tool and R software. The third step is to create a two-page Intersection Safety Analysis Report (ISAR) for intersections of interest and maps of the state, UDOT Regions, and counties with the model results. Parts of the ISARs are auto-generated and the rest is entered manually by an analyst. The two-page ISARs will be used by UDOT Regions to prioritize intersection safety projects in their respective areas.

Degree

College and Department

Ira A. Fulton College of Engineering and Technology; Civil and Environmental Engineering

Rights

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